The Week 15 edition of Thursday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers isn’t the sexiest game on the slate, but it does present an ample amount of betting options.
My Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks anticipate a big night for Bijan Robinson through the air. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, with the game airing on Prime Video.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction
Falcons vs Buccaneers Best bet: Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting destroyed through the air by opposing running backs. They’re allowing 53.9 receiving yards per game to the position, which is the most in the NFL, and now they’re faced with a matchup against one of the league’s top pass-catching backs.
Bijan Robinson is third on the Atlanta Falcons in receiving yards, averaging an impressive 46.3 yards per game. Specific to this number of 36.5, he’s topped it in nine of 13 games. He tends to have a high ceiling, as he’s hit 50+ receiving yards in six games, including in a Week 1 matchup against Tampa Bay, where he reached 100 receiving yards.
While we’re not necessarily getting a discount on the number of 36.5, as it’s typically been set within this range, it could be a sneaky spot to jump on after he had just eight receiving yards in a blowout loss against the Seahawks last week.
Some of Robinson’s best receiving games have come after brutal losses this season. He went for 106 against Washington the game after being shut out by the Panthers, and he went for 50 off eight catches the week after the Falcons got stomped by the Dolphins.
Aside from Robinson’s 100-yard receiving game against the Bucs to open the season, other notable running back receiving performances against the Bucs include James Cook going for 66 yards, Jahmyr Gibbs reaching 82 yards, and Christian McCaffrey racking up 57.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF same-game parlay
This Tampa Bay defense has shown plenty of holes lately, and they’ve been especially bad at defending the pass. They’re allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the most receiving yards per game to the running back position.
Robinson has reached 50+ receiving yards six times this season, and let’s not forget Kirk Cousins went off for 509 passing yards in a game against the Bucs last season.
Falcons vs Buccaneers SGP
- Kirk Cousins 200+ passing yards
- Bijan Robinson 50+ receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: TEASER
It’s not that there’s a lot to like about the Falcons in this spot; there’s actually a lot to dislike about the Bucs. It’s hard to get behind a favorite in a divisional matchup when that favorite is coming off a loss to the Saints after barely sneaking by the Cardinals the week prior.
Atlanta is flawed, but they’ve won or stayed within three points in five of the last six games in this rivalry.
Falcons vs Buccaneers SGP
- Kirk Cousins 200+ passing yards
- Bijan Robinson 50+ receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
- Falcons +4
Falcons vs Buccaneers odds
- Spread: Atlanta +4 | Tampa Bay -4
- Moneyline: Atlanta +195 | Tampa Bay -240
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Falcons vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The Buccaneers are 2-11 ATS in the first quarter this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, December 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
Falcons vs Buccaneers latest injuries
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