All eyes will be on Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield in his NFC South clash against the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
My top NFL picks for the Baker Mayfield odds are calling for him to have a successful night on the ground on Thursday, December 11.
Baker Mayfield prop pick
Baker Mayfield best bet: Over 16.5 rushing yards (-120 at bet365)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has rushed for 19 or more yards in seven of 13 games this season, including four straight, and this is also a solid matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have surrendered the ninth-most yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks, and nine signal callers have rushed for 20+ yards through 13 games.
Additionally, Mayfield’s 33 scramble rushes are the seventh most, and he also ranks fourth in PFF running grade among QBs. He’s scampered for a high-end 6.6 yards per tote and 5.42 yards after contact per attempt, too.
Finally, including the Week 10 trip to Berlin, this is the fifth road game in seven weeks for the Falcons — a truly daunting gauntlet on the Atlanta schedule.
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Baker Mayfield same-game parlay
Buccaneers -4
Baker Mayfield Over 16.5 rushing yards
Sean Tucker anytime touchdown
In addition to the noted tough schedule spot for Atlanta, the Falcons have also dropped seven of eight while ranking 20th in DVOA.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins also just faced his first real test of the season and was held to a minuscule 50.0 completion percentage for 5.4 yards per attempt in a 37-9 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, while also finishing with the sixth-lowest EPA+CPOE composite of Week 14.
A quick stat check doesn’t paint the prettiest recent picture for the Buccaneers and Mayfield, either, but I’m expecting playing at home on a short week to cure a lot of the Tampa ills on Thursday Night Football.
Sean Tucker has found pay dirt six times across the past eight games and handled two red-zone carries in a supporting role in Week 14.
Tucker continues to show off when given an opportunity and has earned the trust of offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard near the goal line. Adding Tucker to score skyrockets the odds, too.
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