Thursday Night Football Computer Picks: Our Best Week 15 Player Prop Projections

Our best NFL player prop projections for tonight are highlighted by Tampa Bay's Emeka Egbuka tormenting the Falcons... for the second time this season.

Jared Hochman - Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Jared Hochman • Content Manager
Dec 11, 2025 • 09:20 ET • 4 min read
Falcons vs Buccaneers computer picks Emeka Egbuka
Photo By - Imagn Images. Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) runs with the ball for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons.

Week 15 kicks off with an NFC South matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Our NFL player prop projections have identified the best TNF prop values for tonight, including Emeka Egbuka having a big game against the birds... just as he did in Week 1.

Falcons vs Buccaneers computer picks for Thursday Night Football

Falcons Falcons Buccaneers Buccaneers
Cousins o0.5 rush
+115
Mayfield o19.5 rush
-110
Robinson o36.5 rec
-114
Irving o19.5 rec
-110
Mooney o34.5 rec
-110
Egubka o44.5 rec
-110
Pitts u5.5 catch
-115
Durham o12.5 rec
-110
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Falcons TNF computer picks

Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 rushing yards (+115)

Projection: 1.57 yards

"Kirko Chains" has positive rushing yards in three of his last five games. We project him to get at least one yard again tonight.

Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 receiving yards (-114)

Projection: 41.54 yards

The Falcons' star has topped this number in eight of his last 11 games, and he's projected to finish above that number again here.

Darnell Mooney Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 43.86 yards

With Drake London out, our projections like Mooney to surpass a modest total as the de facto WR1.

Kyle Pitts Under 5.5 receptions (-115)

Projection: 5.28 receptions

Pitts is questionable to play, but we're not enthusiastic about his contributions if he does suit up, forecasting him for five or fewer catches for the fifth time in his last seven outings.


More Thursday Night Football picks from Covers


Buccaneers TNF computer picks

Baker Mayfield Over 19.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 22.68 yards

Baker has had 19+ rushing yards in four straight games, and he's forecasted to surpass that number again tonight.

Bucky Irving Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 24.08 yards

We're projecting the Bucs' RB to top this number for the sixth straight game (and third straight after returning from injury).

Emeka Egbuka Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 51.85 yards

Egbuka is in a bit of a slump, but he had a game-high 67 yards in Week 1 against Atlanta — and we're expecting him to break out again this week.

Alternate-total bet
50+ yards (+105) - This number shows decent value.

Payne Durham Over 12.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 15.27 yards

With Cade Otton doubtful, we're projecting Durham to be the TE1 and go Over a low yardage total in the process.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Jared Hochman Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Content Manager

Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King's College in, Halifax, N.S., "Hoch" brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers' NHL Puck Props. 

Awarded Covers' company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop, which is something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.

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