Week 15’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers may not be the most glamorous game on the slate, but it does offer plenty of betting value.
My Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks point to a big night for Bijan Robinson in the passing game. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, with the game airing on Prime Video.
Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction
Falcons vs Buccaneers Best bet: Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting destroyed through the air by opposing running backs. They’re allowing 53.9 receiving yards per game to the position, which is the most in the NFL, and now they’re faced with a matchup against one of the league’s top pass-catching backs.
Bijan Robinson is third on the Atlanta Falcons in receiving yards, averaging an impressive 46.3 yards per game. Specific to this number of 36.5, he’s topped it in nine of 13 games. He tends to have a high ceiling, as he’s hit 50+ receiving yards in six games, including in a Week 1 matchup against Tampa Bay, where he reached 100 receiving yards.
While we’re not necessarily getting a discount on the number of 36.5, as it’s typically been set within this range, it could be a sneaky spot to jump on after he had just eight receiving yards in a blowout loss against the Seahawks last week.
Some of Robinson’s best receiving games have come after brutal losses this season. He went for 106 against Washington the game after being shut out by the Panthers, and he went for 50 off eight catches the week after the Falcons got stomped by the Dolphins.
Aside from Robinson’s 100-yard receiving game against the Bucs to open the season, other notable running back receiving performances against the Bucs include James Cook going for 66 yards, Jahmyr Gibbs reaching 82 yards, and Christian McCaffrey racking up 57.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF same-game parlay
This Tampa Bay defense has shown plenty of holes lately, and they’ve been especially bad at defending the pass. They’re allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the most receiving yards per game to the running back position.
Robinson has reached 50+ receiving yards six times this season, and let’s not forget Kirk Cousins went off for 509 passing yards in a game against the Bucs last season.
Falcons vs Buccaneers SGP
- Kirk Cousins Over 205.5 passing yards
- Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Big Game Bijan!
It’s not that there’s a lot to like about the Falcons in this spot; there’s actually a lot to dislike about the Bucs. It’s hard to get behind a favorite in a divisional matchup when that favorite is coming off a loss to the Saints after barely sneaking by the Cardinals the week prior.
Atlanta is flawed, but they’ve won or stayed within three points in five of the last six games in this rivalry.
Falcons vs Buccaneers SGP
- Kirk Cousins Over 205.5 passing yards
- Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
- Falcons +4
Falcons vs Buccaneers game predictions
Falcons vs Buccaneers moneyline prediction
I think we can expect a tight game between two struggling division rivals, and I'll side with the Buccaneers and their home-field advantage to squeak out the win.
Falcons vs Buccaneers spread prediction
I think this spread is a point too many. While it's been another lost season in Atlanta, we've seen the Falcons put up a fight in multiple situations after a tough loss this season. They've kept things tight in recent matchups against Tampa Bay by winning or staying within three points in five of the last six games between the teams.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Over/Under prediction
This Falcons offense is prone to complete no-shows, as they have five games this season with 10 points or fewer. Tampa Bay's offense is also struggling to put things together right now and has regressed significantly in recent weeks. I'll happily side with the Under.
Falcons vs Buccaneers odds
- Spread: Atlanta +4 | Tampa Bay -4
- Moneyline: Atlanta +195 | Tampa Bay -240
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Falcons vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The Buccaneers are 2-11 ATS in the first quarter this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, December 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
Learn how to live stream Falcons vs. Buccaneers for free.
Falcons vs Buccaneers latest injuries
Falcons vs Buccaneers weather
Tonight's conditions look about as ideal as you can ask for in December football. Skies will be clear through the game window with temperatures slipping from the low 60s°F around kickoff into the mid–50s°F by the fourth quarter. Winds should be light, with no rain in sight and excellent visibility under the lights. The playing surface should stay dry and fast, and there’s no threat of lightning delays or weather-related stoppages.
With weather largely a non-factor, this matchup should tilt more toward a “true talent” outcome where execution, play-calling, and in-game adjustments matter more than external conditions. Quarterbacks and receivers benefit most: a dry ball and calm air favor timing routes, deep shots, and a more expansive passing script. Kickers should have full confidence in longer field-goal attempts, and special teams returns could be more explosive on a firm field.
The only minor impact is the gradual temperature drop, which can make the ball feel a bit harder late, slightly affecting grip and hits, but both sidelines will deal with it equally, so if anything swings this game, it’s likely turnovers, red-zone efficiency, and coaching decisions, and not the weather.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
More Falcons vs Buccaneers picks from Covers
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers prop picks
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers computer picks
- Baker Mayfield odds and picks
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers same game parlay
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Free NFL picks and predictions
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
