The Philadelphia Eagles don’t have to travel far down I-95 for their Week 6 non-conference clash with the New York Jets.
While this will be Philadelphia’s second straight road game and third away tilt in four outings, all packed inside a 20-day window, oddsmakers are expecting another convincing win for the Eagles.
New York is coming off an emotionally charged win at Denver last weekend (avenging OC Nathaniel Hackett), which could leave the Jets flat in the Week 6 NFL odds. Gang Green, specifically QB Zach Wilson and the offense, has improved the past two showings, coming through for bettors against the spread.
Eagles vs Jets odds
Eagles vs Jets predictions
If you read my “Bet Now, Bet Later” feature when NFL odds release on Sunday night, you’d see that I bet Eagles -6 right away. I knew this spread would climb and likely get to a touchdown, making that opening number all the more important.
Well, here we are on Tuesday afternoon and the market has moved to Philadelphia -7.
While my power ratings say we should still be in the clear at a touchdown, I’m not asking anyone to bet on the worst of the number. What I will do is ask that you put faith in the Eagles to hold a halftime lead and then roll to the victory overall.
The double-result prop – also known as halftime/fulltime – is a bet on Philadelphia to be ahead at the half and then eventually win the game, with this market available at -120 odds at bet365.
Considering the Eagles average just shy of two touchdowns in the first half and have led at the break in all but one game so far in 2023 – going 20-4-1 SU in the first half since last season - it’s not much of a stretch.
Philly’s first-half defense leaves a little to be desired, but the Jets have been behind on the scoreboard at the break in each of their five games so far and are just 12-36-11 SU in first halves since 2020.
As for the final two frames, Philadelphia’s continuous body blows show dividends. The offense sits No. 5 in EPA per play in second halves, outscoring foes by an average of four points. If you watched the Week 5 win against the Rams, the Eagles dominated the football and allowed L.A. limited touches on offense.
The choice to avoid the -7 and go with the Eagles double-result has something to do with that ability to stick the game in sand and essentially run the clock out for the final two quarters. Philadelphia is extremely efficient on third downs and owns the second-highest TOP in the league but isn’t ending those extended drives in touchdowns.
Philly is finding the end zone on just over 42% of its trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, including a 2-for-6-day in the RZ against the Rams. The Eagles are leaving points on the table – never a great thing when laying a touchdown or more – and face a Jets defense ranked third best in red zone defense (31.25% TD% allowed).
So instead of laying the touchdown -110 and sweating out the second half or going outright on the moneyline at -305, bet -120 on the double-result. Philadelphia will start quick like it always does and then coast to the finish line – free of any spread worries in the second half.
My best bet: Philadelphia Eagles Double Result (-120 at bet365)
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Eagles vs Jets same-game parlay
Eagles first-half moneyline
C.J. Uzomah Over 6.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts Over 43.5 rushing yards
The Eagles are quick starters and have dominated the opening 30 minutes over the past two seasons.
Philly cruises to the finish line and we avoid a late-game sweat. Also, if the Eagles get up by 17 points, this leg is an early payout at bet365.
C.J. Uzomah caught both balls his way in the win over Denver, totaling 12 yards. He’s the better blocking tight end for the Jets, so he’ll see plenty of snaps against this Philly pass rush.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is always a threat to break a big day on the ground. New York does a good job generating pressure and has allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks so far this season. Hurts is also the most dangerous dual-threat QB that the Jets have played up to this point.
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Eagles vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
Before Aaron Rodgers’ injury in Week 1, the offseason odds for this game had Philadelphia laying just 1.5 points in East Rutherford. But with Rodgers recovering from the torn Achilles and the Jets having dropped three straight games, the look-ahead spread was at Eagles -6.5 before the Week 5 results.
Following the Jets ugly win in Denver and Philly’s dominant performance in L.A., books opened the visitors between -6 and -6.5 on Sunday evening. That evened out at Philadelphia -6 but has since climbed to -7, with a move to the key number across the industry on Tuesday afternoon.
My power ratings, which have been very bullish on the Eagles all season, are calling for a double-digit spread for this non-conference clash. The Covers Consensus numbers have 67% of early picks laying the points with Philly.
The market move off the -6 and to the key number of a touchdown tells you everything you need to know about the Eagles. This could be the best two-way team in the NFL, with Philadelphia sitting No. 5 in Total DVOA at FTN entering Week 6.
The Eagles absolutely put the Rams on ice in the second half of their Week 5 meeting. Philadelphia dominated the football with a relentless run game and explosive passing attack, hogging the football for close to 38 minutes in time of possession.
The offense recorded 28 first downs and was an incredible 13 for 18 on third downs, thanks in larger part to the herald (and controversial) “Brotherly Shove” in short-yardage situations. The Eagles, did however, leave points on the table with a 2-for-6 finish inside the red zone – an aspect of this offense that has sputtered to start 2023 (27th in TD%).
New York’s defense continues to be the backbone of this Jets team but is buckling under the weight of an offense that can’t consistently move the chains. New York’s stop unit has logged some major minutes (sixth most) and is bending for 5.6 yards per play over the past three games.
That defense desperately needs Zach Wilson to continue his improvements under center. After three abysmal outings, Wilson has shown flashes of brilliance in his last two starts against the Chiefs and Broncos. At least, he’s done enough to help New York cover the spread.
Turnovers are still an issue for Wilson, with five INTS to four TDs, and the Eagles are fantastic at generating pressure with just the defensive line and creating chaos. Philadelphia owns the third-highest pressure rate in the league and has landed 15 sacks while blitzing less than 19% of the time.
Wilson doesn’t react kindly to pressure, averaging only 4.4 yards per attempt and completing just over 41% of passes in those situations – ranked among the worst QBs at PFF. Expect the Jets to dial up a lot of handoffs to help him out, with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook sharing rushing duties.
The Over/Under total for Sunday’s game opened at 42.5 points and has slipped down to 41 at some books on Tuesday afternoon.
The Eagles are 3-2 O/U on the season, having gone Under the total in Week 5, and run a methodical pace on offense. Philadelphia is 23rd in second per snap but will use its share of no-huddle offense – at least in the first half before grinding out foes with large leads in the final 30 minutes.
New York is also 3-2 O/U heading into Week 6. The Jets also run a very slow tempo on offense, sitting 21st in seconds per snap and averaging a league-low 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast for East Rutherford is calling for potential rain and winds blowing up to 23 mph on Sunday afternoon. That could keep things short and slow down any deeper strikes from the Eagles’ passing playbook.
Eagles vs Jets betting trend to know
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS in non-conference games under head coach Nick Sirianni, while going 9-2 Over/Under against those AFC foes in the regular season. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Jets.
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Eagles vs Jets game info
|MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
|Sunday, October 15, 2023
|4:05 p.m. ET
|Jets +6, 42
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