The Kansas City Chiefs’ defense had a week to forget, watching as Justin Herbert torched their secondary in a disappointing defeat. Now, they’ll return home and face an even-more explosive offense in the Philadelphia Eagles in a game which could easily turn into a shootout.
We’ll get into which pass-catchers to target on either side, and one perennially undervalued running back who needs some love.
Without further ado, let’s get into my Eagles vs. Chiefs NFL player props and NFL picks for Week 2.
Eagles vs Chiefs props
Thornton o29.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)- Hunt o35.5 rushing + receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Calcaterra o2.5 receptions (+110 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #1: Tyquan Thornton Over 29.5 receiving yards
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a flat offensive performance against the Los Angeles Chargers. Sure, this matchup doesn’t look all that wondrous on paper, particularly against one of the league’s best defenses, but the Chiefs are still going to move the ball.
One man who should be thrust into a larger role is Tyquan Thornton, a second-round pick of the New England Patriots back in 2022 who was used sparingly until he arrived in Kansas City. The Chiefs are now missing Xavier Worthy on top of Jalen Royals and the suspended Rashee Rice, and that means Thornton and his game-breaking speed will be on the field for most of this contest.
Thornton saw 72% of the snaps last week after Worthy was injured, and he delivered a huge 38-yard catch-and-run on a day when he caught two of his four targets. The matchup couldn’t be any better, too, with Adoree’ Jackson coming off a bad game and standing as the Philadelphia Eagles' worst starting corner, and all we need in theory to get home here is one or two catches.
Prop bet #2: Kareem Hunt Over 35.5 rushing + receiving yards
Kareem Hunt has been one of my favorite players to bet on in the last nine or so months, because with Isiah Pacheco now fully healthy in the Chiefs' backfield, oddsmakers have continued to project an insignificant role for the veteran.
Well, that’s just not the case. Hunt took 38% of the snaps in the backfield last week, rushing five times for 16 yards, and also added 10 yards on two catches. While Philly’s defense does look strong on paper, it did grade out as the ninth-worst run-stopping unit last week against a weak Dallas Cowboys backfield.
On the other hand, the Chiefs received tremendous push up front and ranked top-10 in both pass protection and run blocking, with the interior players doing most of the heavy lifting. I believe that KC will be able to establish the run, and that could open the door for Hunt to get involved in a myriad of ways.
Prop bet #3: Grant Calcaterra Over 2.5 receptions
Dallas Goedert was a target monster last week against the Cowboys, hauling in all seven passes thrown his way, but that’s just what Goedert does. In fact, that’s just what the Eagles do. They will feed their tight ends up the middle of the field, with their explosive and physical outside receivers freeing up space.
Even with Goedert injured last year, they still fed Grant Calcaterra the ball a decent amount.
Well, Goedert is now injured again; he’ll miss this game with a knee injury. That means all the snaps that Calcaterra can handle, and last year he was targeted three or more times in all but one of the five games he played over 90% of the snaps. If you were concerned at all about his hands, he was able to haul in 24 of the 30 passes thrown his way all year.
I think this is a sneaky good spot to play Calcaterra given the Chiefs’ breakdown in coverage last week against a technically weaker Chargers offense. They allowed 68 yards on three catches to L.A.’s two tight ends, and last year they also allowed the seventh-most targets to opposing tight ends. The middle of the field should be wide open again.
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