Two of the league's most prestigious rushing quarterbacks head across the pond for a Sunday matinee matchup with an influx of touchdown potential.
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is forecast to be cool and dry, so weather should have little effect. The larger concern is an offensive line reshaped by Lane Johnson's retirement and the Cam Jurgens trade before facing Jacksonville's edge rush.
Seeing this offense priced as a 7-point underdog with an implied total of 17.75 points feels jarring until you evaluate the trenches.
Between Johnson’s retirement and the Jurgens trade, the line faces immediate pass-protection friction against a ferocious edge rush. If you are analyzing Philadelphia Eagles anytime touchdown scorer picks across neutral London turf, low totals do not eliminate touchdowns — they compress probability.
When pocket time evaporates, scheme execution pivots from vertical timing to risk mitigation. Direct quarterback rushing power and short-area distribution should absorb the bulk of high-leverage scoring volume near the paint.
Top Eagles anytime touchdown predictions
| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 33% | 69 |
| Will Shipley | RB | 30% | 58 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 23% | 57 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | 18% | 47 |
| Darius Cooper | WR | 18% | 45 |
| PHI Eagles D/ST | DST | 12% | 36 |
| Johnny Mundt | TE | 7% | 34 |
Market note: Probability is calculated directly from the submitted market price. Index Score measures relative value, not the player's raw probability of scoring.
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Jalen Hurts anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Hurts has played 98% of snaps and logged 21 rushing attempts through four games. His six red-zone opportunities remain valuable, but Will Shipley has narrowly led the team with seven.
The matchup: Jacksonville can squeeze the edges with Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, making interior sneaks more attractive than wide keepers. The reshaped offensive line adds uncertainty to the push mechanics that normally support his goal-line role.
The value: The submitted price of 33% implies a 33% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 36%, creating a positive gap of about three percentage points. That assessment depends on whether Philadelphia reaches the one-yard line often enough for the sneak package to matter, so the price is a positive lean under the current assumptions.
Will Shipley anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Shipley has 15 carries and six targets through four games, but his seven red-zone opportunities lead the team and include two carries inside the 10. Injuries ahead of him create a larger Week 5 workload than the season totals imply.
The matchup: Jacksonville's interior is anchored by Arik Armstead and DaVon Hamilton, making direct downhill efficiency uncertain. Shipley's cleaner route may be a screen or outside-zone cut rather than a direct interior collision.
The value: The submitted price of 30% implies a 30% chance of scoring, while our fair-value estimate sits at approximately 31%, creating a positive edge of one percentage point. That assessment depends on whether the replacement offensive line creates enough movement to preserve his scoring touches, so the price is a positive lean under the current assumptions.
Dontayvion Wicks anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Wicks has played roughly 83% of snaps and drawn 20 targets, accounting for about 19% of Philadelphia targets. With established starters unavailable, he projects as the most stable remaining route runner.
The matchup: His boundary work should bring him toward Montaric Brown and Travis Hunter, with Jacksonville able to keep safety help over the top. A red-zone dig off play action is more attainable than a low-percentage deep fade.
The value: The submitted price of 23% implies a 23% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 24%, creating a positive gap of about one percentage point. That assessment depends on whether the expanded route share translates into priority targets rather than decoy work, so the price is a positive lean under the current assumptions.
Makai Lemon anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Lemon has drawn 15 targets and approximately 14% of team volume while playing about 68% of snaps. That role is meaningful, but touchdown-specific usage remains less established than the market leaders.
The matchup: Slot and motion snaps can place him against nickel Jourdan Lewis and Jacksonville's linebackers. A shallow cross against zone, particularly after Hurts extends the play, is his clearest route.
The value: The submitted price of 18% implies an 18% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 18%, creating a negative gap of about 0.5 percentage points. That assessment depends on whether Philadelphia keeps him on the field when the offense enters scoring territory, so the price is close to fair under the current assumptions.
Darius Cooper anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Cooper has produced 10 targets on a smaller route base, representing roughly 9% of team volume. He is a secondary option whose Week 5 relevance comes from the depleted receiver room.
The matchup: Outside routes will test Jacksonville's corner depth while Wicks attracts the more stable coverage attention. A backside slant against single coverage is the narrow scoring mechanism.
The value: The submitted price of 18% implies an 18% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 17%, creating a negative gap of about 0.9 percentage points. That assessment depends on whether the receiver rotation remains condensed and he clears half the routes, so the price is close to fair under the current assumptions.
PHI Eagles D/ST anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: The defense needs a return touchdown, so a takeaway must also generate open-field opportunity. Philadelphia has blitzed on only 19.7% of dropbacks, preferring four-man pressure and coverage integrity.
The matchup: Jalen Carter and the interior front must collapse Lawrence's pocket without exposing lanes for the run-heavy Jaguars. The clearest path is a hurried throw to the flat that gets picked off by a corner and returned for six.
The value: The submitted price of 12% implies a 12% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 10%, creating a negative gap of about two percentage points. That assessment depends on whether the front creates pressure quickly enough to force a returnable mistake, so the price is too short under the current assumptions.
Johnny Mundt anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Mundt has played about 30% of snaps with four targets and a 5% target share. His role is primarily rotational, making a touchdown dependent on a specialized heavy formation.
The matchup: Jacksonville linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Ventrell Miller will prioritize the run and Hurts near the goal line. Mundt's best chance of scoring comes if he slips behind the defense on a play-action pass.
The value: The submitted price of 7% implies a 7% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 4%, creating a negative gap of about three percentage points. That assessment depends on whether Philadelphia uses him as a receiver rather than an extra protector, so the price is too short under the current assumptions.
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Game Script & Betting Context
Philadelphia carries an implied total of approximately 17.75 points within a 42.5-point environment. As a 7-point underdog, a trailing script would increase routes for the replacement receivers but could reduce conventional running-back carries.
Protection breakdowns may also create scramble chances for Hurts. Cool, dry London conditions are neutral; the offensive-line transition is the clearest reason scoring could fall below an already modest expectation.
For analysis across the full slate, see our NFL Week 5 anytime touchdown predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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