The National Football League returns to Germany for the second time on Sunday, when the 6-2 Miami Dolphins take on the 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs in the home of Eintracht Frankfurt football club.
The Week 9 odds are basically a toss-up between these two AFC powerhouses. Tua Tagovailoa will be looking for their first win over a team with a winning record, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are looking to bounce back from an upset loss in the NFL odds to the Denver Broncos.
You can also get a full-game analysis with our Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks, and more great prop bets in our Patrick Mahomes props spotlight.
Dolphins vs Chiefs props
- Tagovailoa Under 274.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Kelce Over 7.5 receptions (-105 at BetMGM)
- Pacheco Under 3.5 receptions (-150 at bet365)
Picks made on November 4 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Dolphins vs Chiefs props
Prop bet #1: Not so fast my friend
Tua Tagovailoa is one of the current favorites in the NFL MVP odds and deservedly so. On the season, he is averaging 302 yards and 2.3 touchdowns through the air per game. However, things have not been as easy going for him when facing the tougher competition.
In the two losses this season to the Bills and Eagles, Tua averaged 249 yards and one passing touchdowns. The Chiefs are going to give him some similar problems that he saw in those two contests. Kansas City ranks second in passing defense in the NFL, allowing 176.1 yards per game.
The Chiefs have played against Russell Wilson twice, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson this season. Only Cousins managed to surpass 260 yards through the air with 284 yards. Goff and Herbert were the only others who made it 250 yards passing.
Even though I think the Dolphins will be trailing in this game, that has not meant more passing yards for Tua in the past. That combined with the solid Chiefs pass defense makes this Under in passing yards a must play in the Tua Tagovailoa odds. The international games have typically been lower-scoring than regular games, and that will only help our cause here.
Tua Tagovailoa prop: Under 274.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Eras world tour
The Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift world tour heads to Germany this weekend, and I believe you can expect to see another big game for the tight end. On the season, Kelce is averaging 7.7 catches per game on 9.7 targets. The reception total in the Travis Kelce odds for this contest is 7.5.
Kelce has seen at least eight targets in every single game this season. In the last four weeks, he is averaging 10.5 targets. Patrick Mahomes will continue to look his way more and more, especially given so many of the inconsistencies at the wide receiver position.
The Dolphins have had their struggles with both the tight end position and the opponent’s No. 1 receiving threat. They allowed eight catches to Courtland Sutton, eight catches to Darren Waller, 11 catches to Adam Thielen, and 10 catches to A.J. Brown.
The joke is that when Taylor is at the game, Kelce plays better. Whether that’s true or not, or if she is even in attendance, I expect a big game from him. I would not be surprised if he got to the 10-reception mark like he did against both the Vikings and the Chargers.
Travis Kelce prop: Over 7.5 Receptions (-105 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #3: Target share drop
With all of the targets going to Kelce, that leaves less targets to go around for the rest. The best number I saw for an Under in receptions came up in the Isiah Pacheco odds. His number is at 3.5, which is wildly inflated considering this matchup.
Pacheco has only gotten four or more catches in a game three times this season. He has only seen four or more targets in a game four times. He is only averaging three receptions per game this season and Miami does well to keep their opponents from hitting check downs to the running back.
The Dolphins have only allowed one running back all season to have four catches, and that was Austin Ekeler back in Week 1. And four catches is actually a low number for Ekeler’s standards. I would be surprised to even see four targets for Pacheco in this game, let alone catches.
Isiah Pacheco prop: Under 3.5 Receptions (-150 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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