Commanders vs Colts Week 8 Picks and Predictions: Ehlinger’s Debut Will Bring Excitement

The Indianapolis Colts will have their first interconference matchup of the season when they host the Washington Commanders on Sunday.

The Colts will be going with former sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, who is set to make his first career start. The Commanders will once again have Taylor Heinicke at quarterback after his comeback victory over the Green Bay Packers last week.

Will Ehlinger come out as a winner in his first career start for the Colts? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Commanders vs. Colts on Sunday, October 30.

Commanders vs Colts best odds

Commanders vs Colts picks and predictions

This matchup was supposed to be the return of Carson Wentz to Indianapolis to face off with his replacement Matt Ryan. However, Wentz is out indefinitely with a finger injury and Ryan is dealing with a shoulder injury and has effectively been benched.

Sam Ehlinger was one of the stars of the preseason with his efficient passing and big play ability. He also showed signs of scrambling out of the pocket with success. That is something desperately needed with the Indy offense that currently allows 3.4 sacks per game, which is tied for fourth most in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Washington defense averages 2.7 sacks per game, which is tied for the 10th most in the league.

The good news for the Colts is that Ryan Kelly appears to be good to go at center, and both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines will be available in the backfield. Wideout Ashton Dulin should be the only offensive weapon missing from the arsenal for Ehlinger. The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL in terms of takeaways, with only four forced turnovers in seven games.

If Ryan was back at quarterback, I would suggest that may change, but Ehlinger may not have that same turnover bug. This could be the perfect spot for his first career start. The Commanders are still without Pro Bowl pass rusher Chase Young and may be without starting corner William Jackson III and leading tackler Cole Holcomb.

Ehlinger will not only be able to show off his passing skills but also his rushing ability as well. The Commanders allowed 88 rushing yards to Justin Fields a couple of weeks ago. Even with the missing players on defense, the Commanders will likely still get some pressure on Ehlinger.

This will force him out of the pocket and into scramble situations that should allow him to get a good chunk of rushing yards, which Ryan could not do. I love Ehlinger's rushing number here at such a small number.

My best bet: Sam Ehlinger Over 21.5 rushing yards (-137)

Commanders vs Colts spread analysis

Not only are the Colts much healthier on offense, but they are also getting healthy on defense. Shaquille Leonard will return to play in his second game of the season. Leonard only played 16 snaps in his season debut against the Titans in Week 4 before getting injured again.

Leonard is an impact player that makes a huge difference to this defense. Washington ranks 26th in the NFL in points per game at 17.9. The Commanders also rank 24th in the league in total offense and 28th in turnover margin. The Colts should be able to shut down this offense and force some mistakes from Heinicke, who threw a pick-six last week to the Packers.

The Commanders are 0-3-1 against the spread in the last four meetings with the Colts. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings, and the Colts are a great team at bouncing back from a poor performance. This situation definitely fits the bill.

If Ehlinger holds onto the ball and can get outside the pocket, I love the Colts to win this game. They should be able to force some mistakes on defense and limit the number of big plays from Taylor Heinicke and Co. 

Stay away from the spread if it goes above -3.5 because I expect a low-scoring game, but I would lean toward Indianapolis at its current number.

Commanders vs Colts Over/Under analysis

While Washington ranks 26th in the league in scoring, the Colts are even worse at 16.1 points per game (ranked 30th in NFL). The Colts also have their strength in passing defense, and Washington has yet to establish a consistent run game. They rank 22nd in rushing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards per attempt.

The Under is 16-5 in the last 21 Commanders games played in October and 4-1 in their last five games overall. The Under is an astounding 11-1 in the last 12 Colts games overall and 5-0 in their last five games following an ATS loss.

The debut of Ehlinger is likely to bring some life and sparks to this Indy offense, but it is unlikely to translate into a high-scoring game against the Commanders. Neither team may reach 20 points in this one unless turnovers play a big role, but as mentioned, the Commanders do not force turnovers.

I like the Under here despite the low number.

Commanders vs Colts betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the Colts' last seven games on FieldTurf. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Colts.

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