Commanders vs Browns Preseason Picks and Predictions: Watson's Presence Gives Credence to More Points

The Cleveland Browns will try to ride the momentum from their Hall of Fame Game win over the New York Jets when they host the Washington Commanders for a preseason clash tonight.

Washington is coming off of a middling 8-8-1 season, but is heading into a new era under owner Josh Harris, who bought the team from Daniel Snyder during the offseason. The Browns finished 7-10 last season, and beat the Jets 21-16 last week in Canton.

DeShaun Watson should get his first looks for Cleveland this season, while Sam Howell will get the start for Washington as he angles for the same role heading into the regular season. We’ll take a closer look at how these quarterback situations could impact Friday’s game in our free NFL picks and predictions for Commanders vs. Browns on August 11.

Commanders vs Browns odds

Commanders vs Browns predictions

If nothing else, viewers tuning in tonight should get to see some competent quarterback play. That’s a big plus when it comes to preseason football and, in this case, both teams seem to be offering up two interesting options who should combine to get a fair number of snaps.

The Cleveland Browns will start the game with DeShaun Watson behind center. Ignoring his off-field issues for a moment, Watson wasn’t quite his old self when he returned to the league last year. While Watson was still nimble on his feet, Cleveland didn’t see the same passer that the Houston Texans had throughout the early years of his career. That’s why the Browns will probably give Watson as much as two full series to start the game, hoping to watch him confidently and cleanly run the offense in real game action.

Once Watson leaves the game, Dorian Thompson-Robinson will take over. The fifth-round draft pick out of UCLA looked good in his first preseason performance, going 8-for-11 for 82 years and a touchdown through the air against the Jets, while also running for 36 yards on six carries. That’s the kind of performance that — if Thompson-Robinson can keep it up — could move him up the depth chart as he fights Joshua Dobbs and Kellen Mond for the backup QB slot on the roster. 

For the Washington Commanders, Sam Howell comes into the season as the presumptive starter. However, he only appeared in one game in his first year in the NFL and head coach Ron Rivera hasn’t officially given him the job just yet. 

Howell will be getting the start on Friday, however, and he has gotten most of the first team reps during practice. Howell is coming off a solid performance against the Dallas Cowboys in last year’s season finale, going 11-for-19 for 169 yards with both a touchdown and an interception, while also rushing for a score.

If Howell doesn’t impress, Jacoby Brissett could certainly step in to take the starting role for at least the start of the upcoming season. Brissett was solid in the starting role for the Browns last year, completing 64% of his passes and throwing 12 touchdowns against six interceptions. Howell and Brissett should combine to play most of the game on Friday.

None of these names — with the possible exception of Watson, if he regains his peak form — are overwhelmingly impressive. However, all four look like they are more than capable of leading offenses during the preseason. And since they should all get at least a fair amount of playing time, that means we might actually be dealing with competent quarterback play for the majority of the game.

As a result, I don’t think we can expect this to be the typical preseason slog. The markets have already reacted by raising the total on this game slightly, but I still think we’re getting in at a number that’s clearly too low for this matchup. I’m taking the Over for Friday’s game. 

My best bet: Over 38.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Commanders vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis

The Browns opened Friday’s matchup as a one-point favorite. That line has jumped to Cleveland -3, perhaps due to the fact that Watson has been confirmed as the starter. 

Dating back to last year, the Browns are 2-1-1 against the spread in their last four preseason outings. The Commanders went 1-2 ATS in the 2022 preseason campaign.

It makes sense to list the Browns as the favorite for Friday’s matchup. They’ve already shown some success against the Jets, they’ll be playing at home, and Watson's addition for a couple of series could spark their offensive even further. While I’m not usually a fan of giving up points in the preseason, I’m leaning towards Cleveland as the play on the spread.

The Over/Under opened at 38 points for this matchup. That number has come up slightly, with most books now listing 38.5 as the total. In most cases, you can get the same -110 vig on either side of that line.

The Browns have hit the Over in each of their past four preseason games. The Under went 2-1 in Washington’s preseason contests last season.

As I talked about above, awful quarterback play is a hallmark of the preseason. Thankfully, we shouldn’t have to deal with that in this matchup, as both teams will be rolling out at least one capable quarterback. In the case of the Commanders, I have a fair amount of confidence that both primary options can move the ball against the makeshift defenses they’ll face. Watson can do so too, and Thompson-Robinson looked solid last week, though we’ll have to see more from him to be sure. 

All that is enough to expect some points to be put up on the board this Friday. I made the Over my best bet for this game, and I can’t see any reason to consider playing the Under here.

Commanders vs Browns betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four preseason games. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Browns.

Commanders vs Browns game info

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