Colts vs Vikings Week 15 Props: Jefferson Shreds Indy's Coverage

The Minnesota Vikings host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 on Saturday.

The Vikings have a 10-3 record and NFL betting lines opened with them as 5-point favorites against the Colts who have lost six of their last seven games.

I'm projecting a big win for Minnesota, which is why I'm expecting big plays from Justin Jefferson, a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook, and plenty of passes from Matt Ryan with the Colts playing catch up.

Here are my best free NFL player prop picks for Saturday's matchup...and check out our full Colts vs. Vikings betting preview for more. 

Colts vs Vikings prop picks

• Jefferson long reception Over 27.5 yards
• Cook Over 68.5 rushing yards
• Ryan Over 33.5 attempts

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Colts vs Vikings Week 15 props

Turn on the Jettas

We're running out of superlatives to describe Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who leads the league with 1,500 receiving yards and catches of 20+ yards, with 25. Jefferson is coming off his best game of the season (which is saying a lot, considering the year he's having) where he snagged 11 catches for 223 yards against the Lions. 

The Colts have Pro Bowl cornerback Stephon Gilmore but despite his presence, they rank just 27th in the league in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. They also rank 20th in the league in DVOA against deep passes, which is bad news indoors against a vertical threat like Jefferson. 

The O/U on Jefferson's longest reception is set at 27.5, a number he has eclipsed in eight of his last 10 games. With Minnesota often moving Jefferson around, look for it to find favorable matchups against this vulnerable Colts secondary and take the Over 27.5 yards on his longest reception. 

Justin Jefferson Prop: Longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115)

Get cooking

Vikings running Dalvin Cook was shockingly held in check against Detroit's god-awful run defense last week, picking up just 23 yards on the ground. That said, he did have 15 of the Vikings' 17 carries in that contest and was on the field for 85% of their snaps. 

That workload suggests that the Pro Bowl running back should be able to bounce back on Saturday against a struggling Colts defense. The Colts' run defense had been middle-of-the-pack for most of the season but has taken a massive step back lately, surrendering 177.7 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per attempt in their last three games. 

Cook is just 50 yards away from his fourth-straight 1,000-yard season and before his struggles last week, he had rushed for more than 70 yards in eight of his previous 10 games. The O/U on Cook's rushing yards total is set at 68.5 for Saturday and I'm expecting plenty of carries and yards from him in a contest the Vikes should win.

Dalvin Cook Prop: Over 68.5 rushing yards (-114)

Matty off ice

Colts quarterback Matt Ryan has looked washed up this season and is coming off a game against the Cowboys where he completed 21 of 37 passes for 233 yards and was picked off three times.

Despite Indy having one of the best running backs in the league in Jonathan Taylor, a negative game script has often forced Ryan to air it out. Ryan has at least 34 pass attempts in seven of his last nine games, averaging 38.7 attempts per game over that span.

The two contests where he threw for fewer than 34 pass attempts were a victory against the Raiders and a one-point loss to the Eagles, where the Colts led for much of the contest. 

The Colts might actually look to pass more in this contest to take advantage of a Minnesota pass defense that ranks just 27th in the league in DVOA and gives up a league-high 287.2 yards per game through the air.

Whether the Colts are able to have success by throwing the ball against the Vikes or whether they fall behind early and are forced to abandon their run game, Ryan should throw a decent number of passes

Matt Ryan Prop: Over 33.5 pass attempts (-125)

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