Colts vs Bills Preseason Picks and Predictions: Shaking Away Distractions

With a ton of distractions in his first NFL camp as a head coach, Shane Steichen likely wants nothing more than to quiet the noise and establish a winning culture with the Indianapolis Colts and that begins Saturday afternoon at Highmark Stadium vs. the Buffalo Bills as decent 3.5-point favorites with a total of 38. 

With the much better quarterback rotation, Anthony Richardson likely to see multiple series, and Buffalo resting its big stars, should bettors be laying more than a field goal with the visitors in the matinee?

Here are my free NFL preseason picks and predictions for Colts vs. Bills.  

Colts vs Bills odds

Colts vs Bills predictions

Shane Steichen had his hands in the development of Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert while new Indy OC Jim Bob Cooter helped with Trevor Lawrence last year in Jacksonville. The Colts’ quarterbacks are in good hands and will have the edge Saturday afternoon in Orchard Park.

Bettors moved the Colts from -2.5 to -3.5 as Steichen announced that first-round rookie Anthony Richardson will get the start. It’s always a fast game for rookies as we saw with CJ Stroud on Thursday, but Richardson has the legs to move the sticks and with Buffalo not playing Josh Allen or other key starters and instead leaning on the younger players, there’s a lot to like about the Colts. Even enough to take them at -3.5 on the road in Buffalo, which will likely be loud with the return of Damar Hamlin. 

Richardson might not win the game, but Steichan has some decent talents behind him. Gardner Minshew will get the ball second and the fringe starter comes into the preseason already familiar with Steichen’s system as the pair were in Philadelphia last year. Sam Ehlinger will likely be the closer. He got starts last year for Indy, has decent wheels, and has posted decent-to-good preseason numbers over two years. 

That trio will face the Buffalo duo of Matt Barkley and Kyle Allen who will be playing behind a thin offensive line and be backed by a defense that made zero upgrades in the offseason and departed with DC Leslie Frazier.

The motivation is high for the Colts’ coaching staff, especially with all the distractions of late and the Richardson/Minshew/Ehlinger trio is worth a field goal vs. Allen and Barkley, in my opinion. The Colts are banged up in the running back department, but all three QBs have solid rushing talent to overcome it. 

Bettors can get some better odds by using Caesars’ 25% boost this weekend with the Colts -3.5 at -110, which can be boosted to +114. It has a max of $50 but is an easy way to increase that +EV. 

My best bet: Colts -3.5 (-110 at Caesars or +114 with the 25% boost)

Colts vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis

The Colts opened as 2.5-point favorites and hit as high as -4.5 before settling down at -3.5 as of Friday. The spread seems pretty generous for a Colts team that has a new head coach, OC, and quarterback, especially against the Bills who are 9-1 SU in their last 10 preseason games, but motivation is playing a big factor Saturday afternoon.

The Colts have had an ugly offseason with the Jonathan Taylor situation as well as multiple suspensions. It’s likely not how Steichen wanted his first camp as an NFL head coach to go, but he has a chance to establish a winning culture Saturday and has the quarterback edge to do so. 

First-time coaches are often more motivated to win meaningless games and that is certainly priced in. Sean McDermott has won plenty of preseason games but  Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will not play and the team’s health is the most important thing for a Buffalo club that doesn’t have anything to prove.

McDermott said some of his starters will play roughly one quarter but that he wants to get a good look at the younger players. It’s also not a very deep offensive line that could struggle late in the game with the deep reserves. The defense also made zero adds in the offseason and lost DC Leslie Frazier. 

It’s also a Buffalo team that will be leaning on Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley for the entirety of the match compared to the Colts, who will start Anthony Richardson and then turn to Gardner Minshew, who is comfortable in Steichan’s system, and Sam Ehlinger (three NFL starts and solid preseason numbers last year). 

However, the Colts are thin at running back with Taylor holding out, Zack Moss out, and Deon Jackson questionable. The Bills have a stable of veteran backs and certainly have the advantage there but with solid playing conditions — dry and light winds — the quarterback rotation as well as the new coaching staff's the motivation has me laying the points with favorites. 

The Colts have a lot of rushing talent in the QB rotation which can go a long way in third-down conversions, especially late. It can also make up for the lack of healthy talent on the running back depth chart. I’m laying the points on Saturday afternoon and the Colts can still cover even if Richardson falls on his face in his first taste of NFL action. 

I have no interest in the total that opened at 38, hit 39, and then was bet back down to 38. It's the third-highest total of preseason's Week 1. 

Colts vs Bills betting trend to know

Since 2014, Unders of 37 or higher in the preseason have gone 201-130-8 (60.7%). Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Bills.

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