Covers is throwing an entry into the Circa Million Pro Football contest for the 2021 season and Adam Chernoff has been tabbed to make the weekly picks so let's dig right in.
Here are his five ATS picks for Week 11 of the Circa Million betting contest.
Week 10 record: 3-2
Season to date: 30-20
Week 11 picks
- Houston +10
- Minnesota +1.5
- Jacksonville +6.5
- Washington +3.5
- New York Giants +11
Read on for a quick analysis of each play.
Houston +10
It is time to start considering fading the Tennessee Titans. While many bettors view them as Super Bowl contenders, it is becoming evident that their defense is unsustainable, and their offense cannot overcome injuries.
In two games without Derek Henry and Julio Jones, the Titans have combined to gain just 345 total yards. Against the Rams, they benefitted from a two-yard drive for a touchdown and a pick-six. Against the Saints, it was more short fields and a failed cover in their first game as a favorite since September.
Their run against the best in the AFC came as favorites, and now laying double digits, it is just too much. More offensive weapons went down for Tennessee, as well as three defensive starters. The Texans have been competitive with Tyrod Taylor, and this number looks to be too much.
Minnesota +1.5
This is a game I believe will flip in the market and close with the Vikings as favorites. The value here is the on-field matchup. Mike Zimmer gets criticized for being too conservative: When he’s leading, he goes run-heavy and relies on Dalvin Cook. When he’s trailing, he goes pass-heavy and plays catch-up with his star wide receivers.
The Packers play a high rate of two-deep safety coverage. They also lack a lot of size in the middle of the field. This will allow the Vikings to have success either way. If the safeties play deep, Cook can run. If the safeties encroach, the Vikings pass game can take advantage of a defense suspect to play action.
Late last season, we saw the same game plan unfold. The Packers sat deep, and Cook ran for 160 yards. With an injury to Aaron Rodgers’ toe and Aaron Jones being out, the Packers offense may take a step back.
Jacksonville +6.5
The San Francisco 49ers impressed the world on Monday Night Football. They ran the ball 44 times and bullied the Los Angeles Rams. Now they find themselves in a bit of a challenging spot, having to travel across the country to Florida on a short week to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
They will do so without Eli Mitchell, who had to get surgery on a broken finger mid-week. With JaMycal Hasty already out, the 49ers are in a difficult spot for their run game, forced to rely on Jeff Wilson. If the Jags do one thing well, it’s stopping the run. Through 10 weeks, they rank 14th defending the ground game and continue to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the pass game. If the 49ers are forced to put the ball into Jimmy Garoppolo's hands more frequently, there is potential for higher variance in this game. The Jags are live in this spot.
Washington +3.5
This number got out of control in a hurry. The Panthers beat the Cardinals playing without most of their top players, while the Football Team beat a Buccaneers squad on the road, and this line adjusts from Carolina -2 to Carolina -3.5? I firmly disagree. Say what you will about the addition of Cam Newton, but this is a QB that nobody wanted any part of the entire season, and he looked so bad last year with New England that the Panthers elected to move forward with Darnold and Walker instead.
Newton returns and runs two goal-line packages and all of a sudden the Panthers’ issues are solved? I don't think so. It’s one thing to bet on Carolina as an underdog, but laying more than a field goal to anyone is much too high a price to pay. I think Carolina will be a popular pick and I am pleased to swerve and go with Washington on the road.
New York Giants +11
After losing as a double-digit favorite last week to Washington, Tampa Bay is listed as the same against New York - but without key pieces.
Vita Vea went down with a knee injury and opens a huge hole in the middle of the Buccaneers defensive line. Jason Pierre Paul was downgraded mid-week with an injury, and two more depth defensive linemen are also DNP's. Chris Godwin is still questionable-at-best to return to playing on Monday Night. Antonio Brown is dealing with a fake vaccine scandal, and Rob Gronkowski is still far from 100 percent.
The Giants, on the other side, are in the opposite situation. After playing injured for the first two months of the season, the bye week brings good news. Saquon Barkley is on track to return, as are left tackle Andrew Thomas and tight end Kaden Smith. Daniel Jones and the Giants have been terrific away from home against the spread, and can with the conflicting injuries on both sides and stay within this number.
Football Contest Countdown
Before making your football contest picks, you'll want to watch the Covers Football Contest Countdown. Adam Chernoff brings on noted contest player Las Vegas Cris and they walk through the weekly odds — right after Circa releases their lines — with the goal of predicting the top consensus plays of the week. The show streams live on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT each Thursday on YouTube and Twitter and is available on-demand at any time.
