Chiefs vs Packers SNF Prop Bets: Pacheco, Dillons Do Damage on the Ground

Prop bet #1: Workhorse

Aaron Jones will miss another game for the Green Bay Packers due to injury. This will be his fifth missed game of the season and in the other four games, AJ Dillon saw a total of 60 carries — 15 carries per game. 

The Kansas City Chiefs have a very good defense this season, but their one weakness has been their ability to give up plays in the run game. They rank 19th in rushing yards allowed and 28th in yards per attempt. Last week, Josh Jacobs saw 20 carries against the Chiefs for the Raiders despite losing by 14 points. 

The Packers will want to keep this game within reach and their best way to do that is to control possession. Jordan Love has only had one game with more than four carries and without Jones, Dillon will see almost all the run plays. Dillon also saw 14 carries in the Chargers game where Jones went down with an injury mid-game. 

It is going to be a cold night at Lambeau, and the Packers are going to gameplan to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. Dillon should see closer to 18-20 carries, and we can get his number here at 13.5. 

AJ Dillon prop: Over 13.5 rushing attempts (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Pacheco breaks one

Isiah Pacheco has home run threat capability in the run game. He's broken out for runs of 48, 31, and 24 yards in three separate games this season. He also has six games this year in which he's broken off at least one run of 15+ yards. 

The Packers rank 27th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and 23rd in yards allowed per rushing attempt. They have allowed 15 different players to run for at least 15 yards on a single carry. That's more than one player per game this season.

Jerick McKinnon has been ruled out of this game due to injury, which means the backfield will lean heavily on Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH has only gotten 16 carries over the last two months, so he'll likely only be involved in the passing game. 

The combination of volume and mediocre defense gives us a great opportunity to bet on Pacheco’s longest rush prop. A 15-yard run isn't asking much of Pacheco and I suspect he'll become No. 16 on the list of guys to do so against this Green Bay defense. 

Isiah Pacheco prop: Longest rush Over 14.5 yards (-125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Keep it on the ground

We just talked about how bad the Green Bay run defense has been this season. Well, that goes for quarterbacks as well. Two weeks ago, Justin Herbert ran for 73 yards against the Packers. Even Kenny Pickett was able to run for 16 yards against this defense. 

Mahomes does not take off a ton, but when he does, he's typically successful. He's averaging 5.8 yards per attempt and has broken off runs of more than 10 yards in eight games this season. Mahomes has one game with no rush attempts and one game with only 9 yards (last week). 

If you take out those two outliers, Mahomes averages 32.9 yards per game on the ground yet we're getting this number at 14.5 yards. The Packers defense will certainly allow opportunities for Mahomes to take off and could easily get this on just a couple of attempts. 

Patrick Mahomes prop: Over 14.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)