We have a marquee matchup on Sunday Night Football in Week 6, with the Detroit Lions heading to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are led by two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, who will try to guide them to a victory after they suffered a fourth-quarter meltdown on prime time last Monday.
My Chiefs vs. Lions player props are betting on Mahomes to have a big game against a banged-up secondary. I'm also backing a Detroit running back to churn out yards on the ground.
Here are my best NFL picks for October 12.
Chiefs vs Lions SNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
Over 265.5 passing yards | -114 |
 David Montgomery |
Over 41.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| Jameson Williams |
Under 44.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Patrick Mahomes Over 265.5 passing yards (-114)
Kansas City Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes is coming off back-to-back standout performances. He threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns in Week 4 before completing 70.7% of his passes for 318 yards last week.
The Detroit Lions' defense has been a pass funnel, with their stop unit defending the run significantly better than the pass. That pass defense could be even worse this week with injuries piling up in the secondary.
Cornerback DJ Reed is already on the IR, and Detroit's other starting corner, Terrion Arnold, has been ruled out for Sunday night. In addition, starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph will be game-time decisions, along with depth CB Avonte Maddox.
Mahomes has a history of excelling against the blitz, and he should pick apart this blitz-heavy Lions defense.
David Montgomery Over 41.5 rushing yards (-114)
The offensive game plan needed to beat the Chiefs is clear: run the ball, control the clock, and keep Mahomes off the field. Thankfully for the Lions, they are perfectly built to follow that script.
Expect Detroit to lean heavily on the run and feed both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery is the more powerful back, and he has rushed for 55+ yards in three of his last four games — including a 151-yard explosion against Baltimore in Week 3.
The Chiefs are 31st in the league in defensive rush EPA while ranking 28th in yards allowed per carry (4.8). The Lions use a lot of outside zone-blocking schemes and duo run concepts, and Kansas City's defense is vulnerable against both run types.
The last time these teams played against each other was back in 2023, when Montgomery rumbled for 74 yards at Arrowhead Stadium. Expect him to pound the rock against the Chiefs again.
Jameson Williams Under 44.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Chiefs' defense is vulnerable against power run games, but their scheme tends to take away deep passes. They frequently use a two-high safety shell and Drop-8 coverages, which has led to them allowing just five catches of 20+ air yards this year.
While their secondary was torched in their season opener, they've improved and now rank second in the NFL in coverage grade per PFF. That's bad news for Lions wideout Jameson Williams, who specializes in taking the top off defenses.
Williams has been held below 44.5 receiving yards in four of five games this year. He hasn't seen consistent volume and has been limited to two catches or fewer in his last four contests — including just a single target last week.
Don't expect Lions OC John Morton to do anything different to get Williams the ball, as his offense still leads the league with 34.8 ppg. After all, with defenses sitting in two-high coverage, there's been more space underneath for Detroit's other weapons to thrive.
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Chiefs vs Lions SNF prop betting card
- Mahomes o265.5 passing yards (-114)
- Montgomery o41.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Williams u44.5 receiving yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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