Coming out of the bye, the San Francisco 49ers are healthy and looking to play with all of their offensive pieces for the first time when they host the Los Angeles Chargers as 7-point favorites Sunday night.
The prop markets opened late on this game but there are still plenty of places to find some value, including the Chargers' receivers, an Under on a San Francisco pass-catcher, and the best price of the season on a heavy-usage running back.
Here are my best player prop bets for Sunday Night Football, and check out our Chargers vs. 49ers picks and predictions for more.
Chargers vs 49ers props
- Ekeler anytime TD (+150)
- Kittle Under 42.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Carter Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chargers vs 49ers SNF props
Price shopping
Yes, the Chargers are heavy underdogs and have a team total of just 17.5 points, but getting Austin Ekeler to score at +150 is an unbelievable price.
First off, the running back has scored in five straight games and accounts for 60% of the team’s rushing and 17% of its receiving yards. Even as a 7-point dog, Ekeler will not be leaving the field, as his role in the passing game makes him game-script proof.
Secondly, the price is great. Over the last five weeks, Ekeler’s average TD price has been -160, and deservedly so. The +150 odds at Coolbet (or +125 at other books) are too much of an overreaction just because of the 7-point spread. Let’s face it, outside of the Chiefs in Week 7, this 49ers defense hasn’t faced a good offense all year. The Chiefs also scored three rushing touchdowns in that game.
When we can get one of the highest probable TD scorers week-to-week at +150, it’s tough to say no. Even if the Chargers are trailing by multiple scores, Ekeler will still be a focal point in this passing attack with the injuries at receiver for the Chargers.
I'd play this to +115.
Austin Ekeler Prop: anytime touchdown (+150 at Coolbet)
Many mouths
There are more mouths to feed in Week 10 for the 49ers. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle will all be vying for targets in a game where the game script might favor the run more. Of the three WRs/TEs, Kittle’s line is the shortest and that’s likely for good reason.
First is his matchup. He will likely see a ton of safety Derwin James, who is the leader of the Chargers’ defense and is allowing just 6.6 yards per reception. The elite defensive back is also allowing a 75.5 passer rating when targeted.
Kittle saw just five targets in Week 8, which he turned into three grabs for 39 yards in a game that Samuel sat out. He also sits third on the team in target share (15.8%) and more than half his grabs have gone for nine or fewer yards as he ranks fifth on the team in average depth of target.
With a tough matchup, lots of competition for yards, and a game script that will favor the run, getting Kittle’s receiving total one yard longer than his season average is a play for me on the Under. This total opened at 43.5.
George Kittle Prop: Under 42.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Carter 36.5
Justin Herbert has been passing a ton without his best weapons — over 50 passes per game in his last three — and Sunday night should be no different.
Mike Williams will be out for a second straight game while the often-absent Keenan Allen will miss his seventh game of the season. That leaves DeAndre Carter and Josh Palmer to soak up the targets in a match that the game script is projecting as another heavy passing effort from the Chargers.
Palmer’s receiving total is roughly 20 yards longer than Carter’s but the two played similar snaps last week despite Carter dealing with an illness. He caught five of his six targets and has been getting downfield, with a team-leading 6.4 air yards per reception since Week 6. His yards after the catch is also identical to Palmer’s, who saw a team-high 10 targets last week, which is why his receiving total is where it is.
His role in the slot might be a better matchup as opposed to the outside vs. this 49ers' secondary.
I’m firing up DeAndre Carter this week —- yes, even over Josh Palmer.
— Michelle Magdziuk (@BallBlastEm) November 11, 2022
This is risky but I expect Charvarius Ward to be on Palmer most of the game and Ward is a legit fantastic cover corner.
The 49ers have been real real bad against the slot this year - Carter’s role. https://t.co/0zMSWr1eBb
Michael Bandy also saw over 80% of the snaps and saw eight targets last week but he currently has no receiving yard markets. I’m hitting Carter Over 36.5 yards receiving and will take the Over on Bandy at anything below 30 yards as well.
Volume, opportunity, and game script are a perfect spot here to hit LA receivers with totals that are modest against a defense averaging over 150 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
DeAndre Carter Prop: Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
