Troy Franklin has been the go-to guy for Bo Nix when the goal line approaches, and my Broncos vs. Commanders props don't think that will change on the Week 13 edition of Sunday Night Football.
Check out the rest of my Broncos vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks for November 30.
Broncos vs Commanders SNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Troy Franklin |
Anytime TD | +150 |
 Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
Under 41.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| Marcus Mariota |
Over 27.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Troy Franklin anytime TD (+150)
A Troy Franklin anytime TD is one of my favorite bets of the entire weekend, and I'd play it down to +140.
The Washington Commanders may be coming off a bye week, but their pass defense is beyond fixing. The Commanders are dead-last in the NFL in net yards allowed per pass attempt this year.
Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos will be content trying to win this game through the air, as they rank sixth in opposing pass attempts per game. And while Franklin must share the targets with Courtland Sutton — among others — when Denver marches down the field, the red zone is clearly Franklin's territory.
Franklin has seen 14 red-zone targets this year, good for 10th in the league. He has double the targets of the next-highest Broncos player (Evan Engram, 6). Franklin has hauled in 11 of those passes for four touchdowns. Narrow it down to the 10-yard line to the goal line, and Franklin has four grabs from seven targets, all TDs.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Under 41.5 rushing yards (-114)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. has risen up the Commanders' depth chart to become the No. 1 option at running back following a few solid performances, but I'm bearish on him this Sunday.
The Broncos are as stout as they come when stuffing the run is concerned, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. They don't see many carries against either (ninth-fewest) due in part to their fierce resistance in that department. But game script is another concern for the Commanders, as I see Denver dominating proceedings.
Even with Rodriguez Jr. going for 65 yards on 12 carries vs. the Seahawks in Week 10, he still ceded 12 carries to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Two weeks later, when he ran for 79 yards on 15 carries vs. the Dolphins, JCM got nine carries, and veteran third-stringer Jeremy McNichols ran with it four times.
Factor in the return of Terry McLaurin, and I don't see Rodriguez Jr. getting the volume he needs to eclipse this rushing yards line.
Marcus Mariota Over 27.5 rushing yards (-114)
Marcus Mariota will be running for his life on Sunday Night Football.
The Broncos boast the most sacks and the fourth-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Mariota has taken off a good number of times of late, recording 17 rushes for 99 yards across his last three starts.
The Oregon product also has four rushes of 20+ yards this season, so he could clear this prop (or get darn close to it) all in one go.
In keeping with this line of thought, look to play the Over on McNichols' receiving yards total, which has routinely opened in the teens this year. He'll be a useful safety valve for Mariota when he tries to catch his breath.
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Broncos vs Commanders SNF prop betting card
- Franklin anytime TD (+150)
- Rodriguez Jr. u41.5 rush yds (-114)
- Mariota o27.5 rush yds (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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