This is a huge game for playoff chances going forward for both teams, who have struggled recently, as the Buffalo Bills travel to Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
There are several matchup advantages for both offenses that we can exploit to find great value in a few player props.
Here are my top three NFL player prop picks for the Bills vs Steelers on Sunday, November 30.
Bills vs Steelers props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |
Over 20.5 pass completions | -114 |
 Darnell Washington |
Under 16.5 receiving yards | -114 |
| Jaylen Warren |
Over 60.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Josh Allen Over 20.5 pass completions
The Pittsburgh Steelers rank dead last in the NFL in both passing yards and pass attempts allowed this season. Josh Allen has 23 or more pass completions in three of their last four games. This is a great matchup for him to do so again.
Allen has completed a career-high 54.2% of pass attempts under pressure. The Steelers are a very blitz heavy team. The Steelers have deployed zone coverage on 79.5% of dropbacks across the last two weeks. Against zone coverage, Allen has completed 74.3% of his passes.
This is unlikely to be a game where Allen is hitting deep passes and picking up big chunks of yards. Instead, I like him to find a lot of short and medium passes to beat the pressure and rack up the completions throughout the game.
Prop bet #2: Darnell Washington Under 16.5 receiving yards
The Buffalo Bills have the best pass defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. A big reason for that is they do not allow yards after the catch. Tight end Darnell Washington lives off getting yards after the catch and this is a bad matchup for him.
The Steelers tight ends have generated 467 yards after the catch, which is tied for the fourth-most in the league this season. Washington has recorded 7.3 yards after the catch per reception, which is the fourth-most among tight ends with at least 10 receptions. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed the fewest yards after the catch to tight ends this season at 125.
Washington has failed to hit this number in five games this season. The Bills just held one of the hotter tight ends in the league, Dalton Schultz, to one catch for eight yards last week. This is just a bad matchup for Washington.
Prop bet #3: Jaylen Warren Over 60.5 rushing yards
As great as the Bills pass defense is, their run defense has been that bad. They rank 30th in yards per game and 31st in yards per attempt allowed on the ground. Jaylen Warren has not been spectacular this year, but he has been hitting this number consistently recently.
Warren has been hit behind the line of scrimmage on 51.8% of his carries, which is the third-highest rate among running backs with at least 75 carries. However, he has gained positive yardage on 72.6% of carries where he is hit behind the line, which is the fifth-highest mark among that same group of running backs.
The Steelers offense ranks eight in the NFL in yardage gained on designed runs, while the Bills defense ranks 30th in that same category. Warren has hit this number in five of his last six games and has a great matchup to add to that streak.
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