The Bills visit the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET, with Buffalo laying 4.5 and the total at 53.5.
My Bills vs. Raiders prop picks attack individual matchups with James Cook, Kirk Cousins, and Josh Allen.
For more Week 6 angles, check out the latest NFL picks.
Best Bills vs Raiders props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 James Cook 90+ rushing yards |
56% |
 Kirk Cousins Under 249.5 passing yards |
51% |
| Josh Allen 14+ yards longest rush |
55% |
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Prop pick #1: James Cook 90+ rushing yards
Buffalo RB James Cook's rushing prop has value at 95+ yards because the Bills have a massive strength-on-weakness edge on the ground. Buffalo ranks second in yards per rush, while Las Vegas sits 31st in yards per rush allowed.
Cook has also gone Over his rushing-yards prop in three of five games this season, finishing with at least 111 yards in all three. The blocking matchup makes this even more appealing.
He leads the NFL in yards before contact per carry, while the Raiders rank 10th-worst in yards before contact allowed per carry, according to Pro.NFL.com. If Buffalo controls the trenches, Cook should have room to rip off explosive runs.
Prop pick #2: Kirk Cousins Under 249.5 passing yards
Las Vegas QB Kirk Cousins' passing prop looks about five yards too high.
Buffalo's secondary has struggled, but the Raiders are relatively easy to defend because TE Brock Bowers is their only true game-breaker. With one of the league's weakest wide receiver groups, the Bills can devote extra coverage to Bowers and force Cousins to beat them elsewhere.
I'm also expecting the Bills to beat the brakes off Las Vegas, which could hurt Cousins' volume late. Even if the Raiders fall behind, lopsided games often slow down once the favorite starts bleeding clock.
And as I always say, blowouts are where Overs go to die.
Prop pick #3: Josh Allen 14+ yards longest rush
Buffalo QB Josh Allen's longest rush prop is playable up to 17+ yards because, as I've already mentioned, Las Vegas has struggled badly against the run.
Allen has ripped off at least 14 yards on a run in three of five games this season. Unlike a traditional rushing prop, I don't need Buffalo to call a bunch of designed runs for him. One scramble when the pocket breaks down could be enough.
Between his size, power, and elusiveness, Allen might be the best ball-carrier in football regardless of position. Against a Raiders defense that already struggles to hit runners before they get going, Allen needs only one play in space to clear this number.
- Prop picks: 11-16, -5.71 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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