The San Francisco 49ers are set to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, with both 4-1 teams looking to keep the momentum going.
I’ve taken a long look at Baker Mayfield odds and specific markets at various sportsbooks to find the very best ways for you to get involved with the Buccaneers quarterback.
Here are my latest NFL picks for October 12.
Baker Mayfield prop pick
Baker Mayfield best bet: Baker Mayfield Under 239.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Baker Mayfield's redemption arc has been one of the most enjoyable stories over the previous couple of seasons in the NFL, and now the former Cleveland Brown is recognized as one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback is performing above average in several metrics, but despite that, he could be in for a troubling Sunday.
Tampa Bay's offensive line has a couple of players on IR, and Tristan Wirfs, although expected to play, was listed as injured earlier in the week.
This season, Mayfield’s best moments have all come near the end of games when he’s managed to get his team across the line, nearly through sheer willpower, and you could argue that he’s one of the most clutch players in the entire league right now.
Mayfield's line stands at 239.5, but we simply have to hammer the Under here. That is a number he’s only exceeded twice in five games this season, even if both of those games came in the previous two weeks.
He’s put up more passing yards every single week, but there comes a point when that stops and we see some regression, and this game against the San Francisco 49ers is just that. They’ve allowed an average of just 207.6 per game, some 30+ lower than Mayfield’s line for Sunday.
With the injuries to his offensive line, plus a receiving corps that is still missing some big-name players, we have to believe that the 49ers’ pass rush can cause enough problems to stop Mayfield from putting up huge numbers again.
Baker Mayfield same-game parlay
Baker Mayfield Under 239.5 passing yards
Emeka Egbuka Over 5.5 receptions
Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown
Emeka Egbuka has eclipsed 5.5 receptions in two of the previous three weeks, and it’s also worth noting that he’s had six or more targets in every single game this season.
We’re doubling down on Egbuka by backing the Ohio State alum to find the end zone once again. Despite his talent, it’s been a shock just how many touchdowns he’s scored, with five to his name this season.
What’s really impressive is that Egbuka has scored in all but one game, and he leads the team (tied with Mike Evans) in red-zone targets.
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