The start of the NFL playoffs saw underdogs bark loudly, with point spread pups finishing 4-2 ATS.
What does that mean for this weekend?
Overall, Divisional Round dogs are 21-18-1 ATS going back to the 2015-16 season, but that’s after underdog NFL picks put forth a 4-0 ATS windfall last January.
The second round of the tournament has traditionally been tougher sledding for teams getting the points — whether you’re getting a single tally or more than a touchdown.
Here are my NFL Underdogs picks and predictions for the Divisional Round.
Last week: 1-1 ATS
Season: 32-22-2 ATS (+6.56 units)
NFL Divisional Round predictions and picks
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Denver Broncos +1.5
Chicago Bears +4
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos +1.5
Best bet: Denver Broncos +1.5
(-120 at FanDuel)
This was one of my first bets of the Divisional Round. Who wouldn’t like a rested No. 1 seed hosting a badly bruised opponent on a short week?
There are tables in the parking lot of Highmark Stadium in better shape than the Buffalo Bills, as they head up the mountain to face the Denver Broncos on Saturday. Buffalo is down to four healthy WRs, the defense just lost its veteran safety, and QB Josh Allen took a “Hell in a Cell” like beating in the win at Jacksonville.
Denver is an elite defense with two weeks to scheme for Allen & Co. The Broncos’ rushing defense has been iffy toward the end of the year, but given the missing pieces in the Bills' passing game, Vance Joseph can sell out on stopping RB James Cook and force Allen to throw into the teeth of this stop unit.
Buffalo was able to overcome the run being nullified by the Jaguars in the Wild Card Round, with Allen methodically picking apart the Jacksonville zone coverage. However, the Denver secondary is stingier, and its man-centric schemes match up well against a depleted Bills receiving corps.
Allen, overall, has struggled against man coverage. He’s tops in the NFL in many metrics versus zone, but sees his output tempered in terms of completion percentage, passer rating, and catchable ball rate against zone schemes.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears +4
Best bet: Chicago Bears +4
(-114 at BetRivers)
This spread has slimmed from Los Angeles Rams -4.5 as low as -3.5, with Matthew Stafford’s injured throwing hand fueling that initial adjustment. But you can still find the Chicago Bears +4 on the board, which is a spread that holds more value than you think.
Four has become an under-the-radar key number in NFL betting in recent years, especially since the league moved the PAT further back. From a handicapping standpoint, the 4-point spread has become a “Bermuda Triangle” of betting: favorites win but don’t cover.
Going back to 2015, when the PAT was moved from the two to the 15-yard line, 4-point favorites win outright 58% of the time but cover in just 45% of those games. In the 29 seasons prior, 4-point chalk won 69% of their games and covered the spread at a 56% rate.
Since 2020, that ATS clip has sunk to 42% despite the win rate remaining unchanged, and closing 4-point favorites are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS this season (FYI: Faves between -4 and -4.5 are 4-15 ATS in 2025-26).
Now, I’m not betting the Bears solely on them being 4-point underdogs.
Chicago’s explosive passing attack can expose this L.A. secondary, that’s struggled in the home stretch and just made Bryce Young look like Steve Young in the Wild Card Round (for the second time this season).
And there’s the matter of the Rams traveling for a second straight week and coming into a cold climate, with extended forecasts calling for bitter temperatures (some models show -7) and potentially 20-plus mph winds at Soldier Field.
If you like the Rams, you may want to avoid the point spread altogether and choose a moneyline ranging around -200. For the sake of this column, I'll grab Chicago +4 Sunday night.
My NFL Underdogs column is 32-22-2 ATS this season for ++6.56 units.
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