We’re heading into Week 7 riding a heater, up over 23 units on NFL touchdown props this season — and the board is loaded again.
From red-zone role players flying under the radar to plus-matchup starters still mispriced by the books, there’s no shortage of value if you know where to look.
Whether you're hunting for longshots or locking in volume-based plays, this week's NFL picks offer the angles we’ve been cashing in on all year.
Best Week 7 TD props
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 Rams vs  Jaguars |
Higbee +325 |
 Patriots vs  Titans |
Stevenson -110 |
 Saints vs  Bears |
Hill +280 |
 Dolphins vs  Browns |
Fannin Jr. +300 |
 Panthers vs  Jets |
Dowdle +120 |
 Eagles vs  Vikings |
Goedert +240 |
 Raiders vs  Chiefs |
Pacheco +190 |
 Giants vs  Broncos |
Dart +390 |
 Colts vs  Chargers |
Downs +260 |
 Commanders vs  Cowboys |
Moore +1000 |
 Packers vs  Cardinals |
Knight +170 |
 Falcons vs  49ers |
Allgeier +210 |
 Buccaneers vs  Lions |
K. Johnson +425 |
 Texans vs  Seahawks |
Barner +300 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Rams vs Jaguars
Tyler Higbee (+325 at DraftKings) A-
Puka Nacua’s injury is shifting the Rams' offense. He hasn’t been ruled out yet, but with a cross-country trip ahead, there’s real doubt about his availability.
After Nacua exited in Week 6, Sean McVay leaned into heavier formations and increased multi-tight end usage. That’s a clear boost for Tyler Higbee, who caught all four of his targets and found the end zone at +350. With only a slight adjustment to his odds, he’s worth an early play while Nacua remains uncertain.
Blake Corum also picked up a knock, which could limit the Rams’ short-yardage rushing options. Davis Allen at +600 is another angle to consider, but it may be smarter to wait on more Nacua news before stacking bets on Rams tight ends in the early slate.
Patriots vs Titans
Rhamondre Stevenson (-110 at DraftKings) B
Nothing is exciting about a -110 price for a running back touchdown, but the Titans are one of the best matchups in the league for opposing RB scores. They're allowing 1.7 RB touchdowns per game, and despite the push from fantasy circles for more TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson’s role is locked in.
Even with early-season fumbles, Stevenson handled 71% of snaps last week and continues to dominate usage. The Patriots’ ground game hasn’t looked great recently, but Mike Vrabel isn’t going to abandon it. Tennessee is the perfect slump-busting defense.
Over the last three games, Stevenson has seven red-zone carries compared to Henderson’s three and is getting more touches inside the 5. It’s a square play, but I’ll take a starting RB with the red-zone majority as a 7-point favorite at -110 almost every time.
Saints vs Bears
Taysom Hill (+280 at DraftKings) B
The do-it-all QB/TE/RB is back. Taysom Hill played just nine snaps two weeks ago and 12 last week, but when he’s on the field, he’s involved.
He took his only goal-line carry in Week 6 for a touchdown, cashing at +250. Alvin Kamara, meanwhile, has struggled in close, going 0-for-4 on red-zone carries last week. Hill remains the better short-yardage option.
The Saints are in a good spot to score multiple times Sunday against a Bears defense that allowed 24 to Washington last week and 24 points to the Raiders in Week 4.
Hill has seven touchdowns in his last 10 games dating back to last season. With potential for increased snaps, he's firmly in play again this week.
Dolphins vs Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. (+300 at DraftKings) A
How about a little rookie-on-rookie connection? Harold Fannin Jr. has quietly built solid chemistry with Dillon Gabriel over the last two games — one in the U.S., one overseas. Gabriel struggled in Week 6 coming off the London trip, but now gets a plus matchup against the Dolphins, who allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Last week, Fannin hauled in a 25-yard catch — the Browns’ longest play of the day. The week before, he scored on his only red-zone target at +550. Since Gabriel took over, Fannin has 11 catches on 14 targets for 94 yards and two red-zone looks.
He’s seeing a growing role, and this number is too long for the matchup. I would play it down to +230 or +240.
Panthers vs Jets
Rico Dowdle (+120 at DraftKings) A+
There’s always some risk betting TD markets midweek, but with Rico Dowdle sitting at +120 after back-to-back standout performances, the value is hard to ignore — even if Chuba Hubbard returns. The Panthers get an elite matchup against the 28th-ranked scoring defense, and it’s going to be tough to keep Dowdle off the field.
Dowdle handled 35 of 39 RB opportunities last week and has racked up 473 total yards and two touchdowns over his last two games. Even when Hubbard was healthy, Dowdle was getting the red-zone work. From Weeks 1 to 4, he had three carries inside the 5-yard line (to Hubbard’s zero) and six inside the 20 (to Hubbard’s four).
The Jets are 0-6 straight up, just got back from London, and are a mess offensively. Carolina could benefit from short fields, and not leaning on Dowdle in this spot would be a mistake. If Hubbard is ruled out, expect this number to move into the -140 to -120 range.
Eagles vs Vikings
Dallas Goedert (+240 at DraftKings) A+
This is a great number for a player with five touchdowns over his last four games, coming off a 9/110/1 performance in Week 6 against the Giants. Dallas Goedert was targeted on 37% of his routes and continues to see an expanding red-zone role as Jalen Hurts gets more creative in close.
The matchup is solid, too. The Vikings gave up touchdowns to both Fannin and David Njoku in London back in Week 5.
There’s no threat to his playing time either — Grant Calcaterra missed practice on Wednesday and is questionable. Goedert should be priced well under +200 given the form he's in.
Raiders vs Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco (+190 at DraftKings) A-
The Chiefs' backfield can be frustrating, but I’m going back to Isiah Pacheco at this price in a strong home matchup against the Raiders.
Brashard Smith’s role has diminished, playing just six snaps in each of the last two games while now also dealing with an illness. Kareem Hunt had only one red-zone carry last week compared to four for Pacheco. I'm not touching Hunt at +125 when Pacheco is available at 65 points longer.
The Raiders are allowing 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game (T-27th), and that number jumps to 1.7 per game over their last three. They may have slowed the Titans last week, but the week before, they gave up three rushing scores to Jonathan Taylor and another to Ameer Abdullah.
Pacheco is getting the work and has the matchup — this price is too good to pass up, but I wouldn't go past +170. The return of Rashee Rice might also open things up for the running game.
Giants vs Broncos
Jaxson Dart (+390 at DraftKings) A+
The Giants are coming off a Thursday night win over the Eagles and now get a decent spot against the Broncos, who are traveling back from London. It’s still a tough matchup, but this is likely the best timing to catch Denver.
Jaxson Dart is leaning heavily on his legs early in his NFL career. Only Jayden Daniels has a higher scramble rate (13.2%), and Dart has turned that into 167 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 30 carries over his last three games.
Denver brings a lot of pressure and ranks at the top in sacks, which could force even more scrambles. His touchdown closed at +340 last week, and the market seems to be over-adjusting for the matchup. There's value if it stays anywhere near that price.
Colts vs Chargers
Josh Downs (+260 at DraftKings) B
The No. 1 scoring offense in the league hits the road this week, but the indoor setting should benefit Daniel Jones and the Colts. Backing this offense has been a smooth ride — they’ve averaged 32.3 points per game over the last six contests, including capitalizing in the red zone at a crazy 92.3% clip over the last three games.
Josh Downs played only 50% of the snaps last week, but he was on the field for every 3-WR set and led all Colts receivers in targets (7) and receptions (6). Most importantly, he saw three red-zone targets — more than any other wide receiver in Week 6.
That’s strong value in a high-total, indoor matchup with a receiver getting quality looks.
Commanders vs Cowboys
Chris Moore (+1000 at DraftKings) A+
Deebo Samuel isn’t fully healthy, dealing with a heel injury and managing just 15 yards last week. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels looks back to form, throwing three touchdowns in Week 6 — including scores to Chris Moore and Luke McCaffrey.
Head coach Dan Quinn also noted that WR1 Terry McLaurin will practice this week, but his status remains uncertain.
In a strong indoor matchup against the Cowboys — who are giving up 2.0 passing touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers — both Moore and McCaffrey are back on the radar for Week 7.
Moore is +1000 to score this week after posting an 83% route share in Week 6. He tied for the team lead in targets (5) and led all Washington receivers with 46 yards.
At worst, Moore is the WR3 in a plus matchup with a quarterback hitting his stride. At best, he could function as the WR1 if Deebo is not at 100 percent and McLaurin sits again.
Packers vs Cardinals
Bam Knight (+170 at DraftKings) B-
There’s some uncertainty at quarterback with Kyler Murray potentially returning, but as of Thursday, Bam Knight looks like the best bet to score for Arizona.
The Cardinals are dealing with multiple midweek injuries at wide receiver, and Knight was clearly the go-to last week. Although Michael Carter started, Knight saw more touches and, more importantly, got both red-zone carries inside the 5-yard line, converting one for a touchdown.
It’s a tougher matchup this week against the Packers, but +170 is still solid value for a goal-line back. Even if Jacoby Brissett ends up starting, I’m fine with this number. Knight closed at +140 last week, and the role is clearly there.
Falcons vs 49ers
Tyler Allgeier (+210 at DraftKings) B-
The Falcons went run-heavy in their win over the Bills last week, and I’d expect more of the same this week. They used 2-TE sets on 64% of snaps, and Tyler Allgeier still saw double-digit carries despite Bijan Robinson piling up 170 yards on the ground.
The main reason for the +210 TD play — no surprise — is Allgeier’s red-zone usage. He has 13 of the Falcons’ 24 red-zone carries by running backs this season, and three of their five carries inside the goal line. He’s also the only back on the roster with a rushing TD inside the 10.
With injury questions on the opposing sideline and Fred Warner out in the middle, this is my favorite angle to back the Atlanta ground game.
Buccaneers vs Lions
Kameron Johnson (+425 at DraftKings) B+
It’s looking more likely that both Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin will miss Week 7, while Mike Evans is trending more probable than doubtful. That opens the door for more work in the passing game for Kameron Johnson — a name most bettors probably aren’t familiar with.
Last week, without Godwin and Evans, Johnson played on 52% of snaps. That number jumped to 88% after Egbuka left the game. While Tez Johnson had the flashier usage and cashed at +500, it was Kameron Johnson who led the team in receiving with a 4/64/1 line.
Both Johnsons should be heavily involved in a high-total indoor matchup, but I’m siding with the longer Johnson — and that’s Kameron. With the way Baker Mayfield is spreading the ball, any pass-catcher seeing meaningful snaps is live to score.
Texans vs Seahawks
AJ Barner (+300 at DraftKings) A
All the talk about the Seattle offense is with Jaxson Smith-Njigba, but I'll happily keep hiding in the weeds and hitting AJ Barner props week in and week out.
He is +300 for a TD on Monday night despite coming off a 71-yard game in Week 6, catching seven balls in Week 5 with two scores, and scoring again in Week 4. Barner has been a vacuum on his targets, catching all but one of his 19 passes thrown his way. He also has four TDs over his last five games.
This is still a run-first team, but Barner is getting more RZ looks than JSN, with five on the season compared to the WR's three. Over the last three weeks, only two other TEs have had more RZ receptions than Barner.
Week 7 anytime touchdown parlay
Rico Dowdle
Rhamondre Stevenson
Javonte Williams
Kyren Williams
I highlighted my favorite Dowdle and Stevenson matchups this week, but Javonte Williams is also a strong addition to a TD parlay in a game with an indoor total over 50 and an offense that stands to improve even more if CeeDee Lamb suits up.
I'll add Kyren Williams in London as the Rams will have to lean on that running game even more, but Matthew Stafford is still pacing the league in passing yards. This offense can move the ball with or without Puka Nukua.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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