Week 13 brings another full slate of NFL touchdown props, and I’m carrying more than 24 units of profit into the weekend.
This board is loaded with soft numbers on backup running backs who are stepping into bigger roles than the market expects, creating some of the best TD value we’ve seen all season.
Here are the NFL picks I’m attacking the Week 13 slate.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 CHI vs  PHI |
Monangai +245 |
 JAC vs  TEN |
Dike +245 |
 ATL vs  NYJ |
Metchie +375 |
 LAR vs  CAR |
Corum +310 |
 NO vs  MIA |
Neal +275 |
 ARI vs  TB |
Carter +210 |
 SF vs  CLE |
Fannin +425 |
 HOU vs  IND |
Higgins +300 |
 MIN vs  SEA |
Jefferson +270 |
 BUF vs  PIT |
Gainwell +230 |
 LV vs  LAC |
Gadsden +210 |
 DEN vs  WAS |
McLaughlin +380 |
 NYG vs  NE |
Hollins +300 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Bears vs Eagles
Kyle Monangai (+245 at DraftKings) A+
D’Andre Swift’s fumble last week couldn’t have come at a worse time, and it opened the door for rookie Kyle Monangai. After the turnover, Monangai logged nine carries to Swift’s two and handled five red-zone attempts, punching in one of them.
He’s been the more efficient red-zone option lately, with eight carries inside the 20 for three touchdowns over the last three games. Swift has zero TDs on six red-zone carries in that span.
Monangai’s goal-line role is real, and his between-the-20s usage may now rise. He looks like RB 1B to Swift’s 1A this week, and his TD price is playable down to +200.
Jaguars vs Titans
Chimere Dike (+245 at DraftKings) B
Chimere Dike lined up as the Titans’ No. 1 receiver again last week and has now scored three touchdowns over his last three games, including two on special teams. He’s been most of Tennessee’s offense in November, and even if Elic Ayomar returns and Calvin Ridley sits, Dike should remain heavily involved against Jacksonville.
He also saw two red-zone targets last week and converted both for a touchdown. On the season, Dike leads the receiver group with nine red-zone looks and six catches. He’s the likely WR1 in a game where Tennessee should be playing from behind.
If you're looking for a real long shot, take a look at RB Julius Chestnut, who was the only RB to get an RZ carry last week. He is listed at +2000 for a TD this week.
Falcons vs Jets
John Metchie (+375 at DraftKings) A+
John Metchie cashed for me last week, and I’m going back to his TD at a price that didn’t adjust enough after hitting +475 for a score in Week 12.
Metchie stepped into a passing upgrade with Tyrod Taylor and operated as the WR1, playing 88% of the snaps, running 90% of the routes, and leading all Jets wide receivers with six catches for 65 yards. He also saw a red-zone target and turned it into a 13-yard touchdown.
This is a WR1 priced like a TE2, and he’s facing a Falcons defense that has surrendered 25 points per game over their last six contests.
Rams vs Panthers
Blake Corum (+310 at DraftKings) A+
The L.A. backup logged seven carries last week while Kyren Williams had 12 for 46 yards, but seven of Williams’ attempts came in the fourth quarter. Blake Corum remains heavily involved in this offense, and with Bryce Young crashing back to earth, the Rams could control the clock on Sunday.
Since Week 6, Corum has 58 carries to Williams’ 88, giving him roughly 40% of the workload. This TD price doesn’t reflect that split when Williams is sitting around -140.
The red-zone work has also been close. Over the last three games, Corum has four carries inside the five to Williams’ two, and overall red-zone carries sit at seven to six in Williams’ favor. If Corum is getting 40% of the carries and better than half of the red-zone work, he should be priced closer to +200 to +240.
Saints vs Dolphins
Devin Neal ( +275 at DraftKings) B
I’m taking on a bit of risk with Devin Neal, who’s been limited in practice, but with Alvin Kamara missing Wednesday’s session and Neal playing 86% of the snaps after Kamara exited last week, Neal could function as an RB1 at an RB2 price.
If Kamara sits, this TD number could close around +150 to +160. If Kamara plays, it probably drifts to +400 or higher.
Taysom Hill is always a threat to steal a score, but his price is too short to justify. Miami isn’t an intimidating matchup this late in the season, making Neal worth the early grab.
Cardinals vs Buccaneers
Michael Carter (+210 at DraftKings) B-
There are plenty of moving parts in this matchup, with Marvin Harrison potentially returning, Baker Mayfield’s status uncertain, and injuries piling up in the Arizona backfield. Emari Demercado missed Thursday’s practice with an ankle issue, and Trey Benson doesn’t appear close to returning. That leaves Bam Knight (+125) and Michael Carter (+210).
The offense has moved the ball well under Jacoby Brissett, and both backs played roughly 50% of the snaps last week. They each saw two carries inside the 5-yard line, which pushes me toward the longer price on Michael Carter in what’s otherwise a coin-flip TD spot.
49ers vs Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. (+425 at DraftKings) A-
Shadeur Sanders isn’t the worst quarterback in football, and Harold Fannin looked like his go-to target last week against the Raiders. The rookie tight end led the team with six targets and caught four for 40 yards. Outside of Quinshon Judkins, he’s the only Cleveland player I trust in Week 13.
The Browns ran exclusively in the red zone last week, but they’re likely facing a more negative script on Sunday. Fannin has been as short as +300 for a TD this season, but with this matchup and quarterback play, I’d only take it down to +350.
Texans vs Colts
Jayden Higgins (+300 at DraftKings) A+
I’ve been backing Jayden Higgins for three straight weeks, and he keeps delivering. He’s clearly the No. 2 option behind Nico Collins and has stayed productive even with Davis Mills, posting 13 catches, 135 yards, and two touchdowns over his last three games.
With CJ Stroud likely returning in Week 13, Higgins should keep his red-zone role in a run game that hasn’t been reliable. He saw two inside-the-10 targets last week against Buffalo and converted both into catches and a score.
I’d play this to +250.
Vikings vs Seahawks
Justin Jefferson (+270 at DraftKings) A
I don’t care if JJ McCarthy misses this game with a concussion — he’s been historically bad. Max Brosmer just needs to get the ball in Justin Jefferson’s direction, and it’s hard to imagine him being any worse than McCarthy.
Jefferson was +200 last week against Green Bay and was as short as even money two games ago. The offense is bad, but it’s been bad all year, and he’ll still see near double-digit targets with plenty of trailing game script. Even with a quarterback change, this number looks about 70 cents too long.
Bills vs Steelers
Kenneth Gainwell (+220 at DraftKings) A
Jaylen Warren is still the starter, but Kenneth Gainwell has been cutting into his workload. He’s played roughly half the snaps for two straight weeks and actually out-rushed Warren 92–68 last week on eight fewer carries. There shouldn’t be a 100-point gap between their TD prices in this matchup.
Buffalo’s run defense is shaky, and I keep thinking back to the Tampa game where Sean Tucker gashed them with ease. With Pittsburgh’s quarterback banged up, both backs can put up numbers, but the value sits with Gainwell. Over the last three games, he has twice as many inside-the-10 carries as Warren.
Raiders vs Chargers
Oronde Gadsden (+210 at DraftKings) B+
The Chargers come out of the bye into a perfect indoor matchup against a Raiders team that just lost to Shadeur Sanders. Oronde Gadsden’s price drifted after quiet performances in Weeks 11 and 12, but getting his TD at +210 — compared to an average of +170 over his last four — is strong value in this spot.
Even during his low-output weeks, the rookie tight end stayed active near the goal line with three red-zone targets. Since Week 8, he has double the red-zone looks of any other Chargers receiver. He’s rested, the matchup is soft, and the Raiders just let Harold Fannin command 30% of Cleveland’s targets, 36% of its receptions, and 20% of its receiving yards.
A fair price here should be closer to +175.
Broncos vs Commanders
Jaleel McLaughlin (+380 at DraftKings) B+
JK Dobbins is still out, and RJ Harvey did nothing in Week 11 despite a chance to take over the backfield. Instead, Sean Payton rotated as usual, with Jaleel McLaughlin handling six of the 17 carries and, more importantly, the red-zone work.
Two of McLaughlin’s six attempts came inside the 10, and he was the back who found the end zone, not Harvey. With Washington allowing the fifth-most points per game, this matchup is far more favorable for Denver’s RB2 than last week’s spot against Kansas City.
Giants vs Patriots
Mack Hollins (+300 at DraftKings) B-
Only the Steelers allow more receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than the Giants, who have also conceded 12 WR TDs, which ranks as tied for the eighth most in football. It also helps that it's Drake Maye and a handful of high-priced WRs on Monday night.
It was Mack Hollins who had the most WR targets (six) in Week 12 vs. the Bengals, and his 78% route share paced all New England offensive players. He is also tied for the WR lead in RZ targets since Week 9, as Stefon Diggs' usage is oddly trending down.
Do I feel confident with a Mack Hollins TD to wrap up Week 13? Not really, but the usage and price are the most important things here. The matchup doesn't get any easier either. I'd play this to +260.
Week 13 anytime touchdown parlay
Quinshon Judkins
De'Von Achane
Breece Hall
Josh Allen
Quinshon Judkins will be busy in a bad-weather game with a rookie quarterback in his second start. De'Von Achane will be busy vs. a bad New Orleans offense that might be without Alvin Kamara. Breece Hall and this New York offense are looking better with Tyrod Taylor under center, and Hall will be the focal point again. Josh Allen is +115, which is a great standalone price in a must-win game.
My weekly NFL TD props column is +24.39 units on the season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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