The Divisional Round is loaded with touchdown value if you know where to look.
Two tight ends are stepping into first-look roles, offering plus-money upside in high-leverage spots. An underrated dual-threat quarterback is also live to cash with his legs after seeing increased red-zone usage down the stretch.
Add in a running back who owns virtually all of his team’s red-zone work, and this slate sets up perfectly for attacking NFL touchdown props this weekend.
Read more in my NFL picks for the entire four-game slate.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 BUF vs  DEN |
Nix +320 |
 SF vs  SEA |
Charbonnet -105 |
 HOU vs  NE |
Henry +200 |
 LAR vs  CHI |
Loveland +200 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Bet your NFL TDs at DraftKings!
Place your anytime touchdown bets at DraftKings, the home of TD bets!
Offering competitive prices and a deep list of players available, find the end zone each week at the #1 place to bet touchdowns!
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bills vs Broncos
Bo Nix (+320 at DraftKings) A+
Over the four-game stretch from Weeks 14–17, Bo Nix logged seven red-zone rushing attempts and converted two of them into touchdowns. For context, lead back RJ Harvey had 10 red-zone carries over that span and also scored twice.
Nix is a much sneakier rushing threat than the market gives him credit for. He ramped up his run rate late in the season, carrying the ball 17 times for 91 yards in Weeks 17 and 18 while adding five more red-zone rushes.
If Denver can establish the run against a shaky run defense, a play-action bootleg near the goal line sets up perfectly for Nix to cash this at a strong price.
49ers vs Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet (-105 at DraftKings) A
Since Week 12, Zach Charbonnet has taken over Seattle’s red-zone work, logging 23 carries to Kenneth Walker’s nine and converting six of those chances into touchdowns. Inside the five-yard line, the usage heavily favors Charbonnet by an 8–1 margin.
Over the last two games, including Week 18 vs. San Francisco, Charbonnet has 35 carries for 184 yards and three TDs, plus added receiving work. Walker has similar overall volume but almost no red-zone usage.
Charbonnet is clearly the primary finisher, making +100 a strong price.
Texans vs Patriots
Hunter Henry (+200 at DraftKings) A
Nobody on the Patriots ran more routes in the Wild Card round than Hunter Henry, who tied for the team lead with five targets and scored the offense’s only touchdown.
Henry was priced at +125 to score back in Week 18 and continues to be the clear top option near the goal line, owning seven more red-zone targets since Week 10 than all New England wide receivers combined.
New England isn’t projected to put up many points on Sunday, which makes backing the No.1 target in the passing game at his best price in months the cleanest angle. Houston has also been slightly vulnerable to tight ends, allowing eight TDs to the position this season compared to just 10 to wide receivers.
Rams vs Bears
Colston Loveland (+200 at DraftKings) A+
After leading all pass-catchers in yards last week, I didn’t expect Colston Loveland to be priced north of +170 in the highest-total game of the Divisional Round.
Loveland did everything but score in the Wild Card, hauling in 15 targets for 137 yards. He may draw more attention this week, but this Rams offense has enough weapons that the defense can’t afford to focus solely on him. This same defense just allowed over 200 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker and has surrendered 149 points over its last five games, including matchups against Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins.
Loveland is in full beast mode, coming off three straight games with 90-plus yards—and there’s no reason to expect that streak to end on Sunday.
Divisional Round anytime touchdown parlay
Zach Charbonnet
Hunter Henry
Colston Loveland
Charbonnet has dominated red-zone opportunities lately, and Sam Darnold isn’t reliable when throwing near the goal line.
I’ll also include the two tight ends who are likely the top targets in their respective passing attacks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
