Underdogs get a bad reputation in the NFL, and most weeks, that reputation is earned.
Favorites win more often than not, and Vegas builds its spreads to reflect exactly that gap. But "more often than not" leaves plenty of room for teams that consistently outperform their billing, whether that means covering the number, pulling off the occasional outright upset, or both.
That's exactly what this guide breaks down. Using every NFL team's underdog record, split by overall, home, and road performance, you'll see which teams have been live dogs worth betting and which ones only look good on paper because of a thin sample size. We'll cover both sides of the coin, betting underdogs against the spread and betting them straight-up on the moneyline, since the two require very different criteria for finding real value.
Here's a look at how NFL underdogs fared straight up and against the spread in 2025:
NFL underdogs SU (2025)
| Team | Overall SU (Underdog) | Home Underdog SU | Away Underdog SU |
|---|---|---|---|
 Philadelphia |
1-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
 Buffalo |
3-1-0 | 2-0-0 | 1-1-0 |
 Denver |
4-2-0 | 2-1-0 | 2-1-0 |
 Atlanta |
5-3-0 | 2-1-0 | 3-1-0 |
 Jacksonville |
5-3-0 | 3-1-0 | 2-1-0 |
 L.A. Chargers |
3-2-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-2-0 |
 New England |
4-3-0 | 0-2-0 | 4-0-0 |
 Chicago |
6-5-0 | 2-1-0 | 4-4-0 |
 Dallas |
3-3-1 | 2-0-1 | 1-3-0 |
 Pittsburgh |
5-5-0 | 2-3-0 | 2-2-0 |
 Houston |
4-4-0 | 1-0-0 | 3-4-0 |
 Carolina |
7-8-0 | 5-3-0 | 2-5-0 |
 Tampa Bay |
3-4-0 | 0-1-0 | 3-3-0 |
 Minnesota |
3-5-0 | 1-2-0 | 2-3-0 |
 San Francisco |
3-5-0 | 1-2-0 | 2-3-0 |
 Detroit |
2-4-0 | 0-0-0 | 2-4-0 |
 Green Bay |
1-2-0 | 0-0-0 | 1-2-0 |
 Kansas City |
1-2-0 | 1-2-0 | 0-0-0 |
 Seattle |
1-2-0 | 0-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
 Baltimore |
1-2-0 | 0-2-0 | 1-0-0 |
 Cleveland |
4-10-0 | 2-4-0 | 2-5-0 |
 Miami |
3-8-0 | 2-3-0 | 1-5-0 |
 Indianapolis |
2-6-0 | 1-2-0 | 1-4-0 |
 New Orleans |
3-10-0 | 1-4-0 | 2-6-0 |
 Washington |
3-11-0 | 0-5-0 | 3-5-0 |
 N.Y. Giants |
3-12-0 | 3-4-0 | 0-8-0 |
 Tennessee |
3-13-0 | 1-7-0 | 2-6-0 |
 N.Y. Jets |
3-13-0 | 2-5-0 | 1-7-0 |
 Cincinnati |
2-9-0 | 1-4-0 | 1-5-0 |
 Las Vegas |
2-12-0 | 1-5-0 | 1-7-0 |
 Arizona |
1-13-0 | 0-6-0 | 1-7-0 |
 L.A. Rams |
0-3-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-3-0 |
NFL underdog SU trends
- Straight-up win rates confirm how much harder outright upsets are than covers. Philadelphia's perfect 1-0 record aside, the best-sustained mark belongs to Buffalo at 75% across four games, and only three teams (Buffalo, Denver, Atlanta) are winning more than 60% of their games as underdogs. Compare that to the ATS table, where nine teams cleared 60%, a clear reminder that covering and winning outright are very different bars.
- Home underdogs are winning outright far more often than road underdogs across the board. Buffalo, Dallas, LA Chargers, and Houston are all a perfect 100% as home dogs, while several of those same teams (Dallas, LA Chargers) post losing records as road underdogs. Home field is doing real work here, not just padding the cover column.
- A few teams have been almost unbeatable as road underdogs specifically. New England is 4-0 straight-up as a road dog, and Baltimore and Philadelphia are perfect in limited road underdog samples too. That's a notable trend worth tracking given how much harder road wins are to come by league-wide.
- The bottom of the SU table is considerably more lopsided than the ATS version. Arizona (1-13), NY Jets (3-13), and Tennessee (3-13) have barely won a game as underdogs all season, a sharp contrast to their more respectable cover rates. These teams may be staying competitive on the scoreboard without translating that into actual wins.
Betting NFL underdogs SU
Betting an underdog straight-up on the moneyline is a much higher bar than betting them against the spread. A team doesn't get credit for keeping it close, covering in garbage time, or losing by a field goal. It either wins the game or the bet loses, full stop. That's exactly why the SU numbers above look so different from the ATS trends covered earlier in this guide, and why treating the two bet types the same way is a mistake.
Understand why ATS success doesn't guarantee SU value
A team can be an excellent cover bet without being a good moneyline play. Carolina is a clear example: a strong 66.7% cover rate as an underdog against the spread, but only a 46.7% win rate straight-up. That gap tells you the Panthers are consistently staying in games and losing by less than expected, which is valuable for spread bettors, but it doesn't mean they're actually pulling off upsets often enough to make them a reliable moneyline dog.
Look for teams whose SU and ATS numbers move together
The teams worth the closest look for moneyline value are the ones performing well in both columns, not just one. Denver, Atlanta, and Buffalo all show strong numbers both straight-up and against the spread, which suggests real underlying strength rather than a team that's simply been competitive without closing games out. When SU and ATS trends align, that's a stronger signal than either number in isolation.
Weigh home and road splits even more heavily on the moneyline
The gap between home and road performance matters for ATS betting, but it matters even more for SU betting, since road wins are inherently harder to come by across the entire league. A team like New England going 4-0 as a road underdog straight-up is a much bigger signal than a team covering well on the road without actually winning those games. Before betting any underdog on the moneyline, check whether their SU success (if any) is coming from home or road situations, since the two carry very different weight.
Don't chase small samples on the moneyline
A perfect SU record built on one or two games (Philadelphia's 1-0 mark, for instance) tells you almost nothing predictive. Moneyline underdog betting already carries more variance than spread betting, since a single fluky bounce can be the difference between a win and a loss, so a small sample compounds that volatility rather than smoothing it out. Favor teams with a longer track record of winning outright as underdogs over teams that simply haven't lost yet in a tiny sample size.
NFL underdogs ATS (2025)
| Team | Overall ATS | Home ATS | Away ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver |
5-0-1 | 3-0-0 | 2-0-1 |
| Philadelphia |
1-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Atlanta |
6-1-1 | 2-1-0 | 4-0-0 |
| Buffalo |
3-1-0 | 2-0-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Dallas |
5-2-0 | 3-0-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Green Bay |
2-1-0 | 0-0-0 | 2-1-0 |
| Kansas City |
2-1-0 | 2-1-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Seattle |
2-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Carolina |
10-5-0 | 6-2-0 | 4-3-0 |
| Chicago |
7-4-0 | 3-0-0 | 4-4-0 |
| Jacksonville |
5-3-0 | 3-1-0 | 2-1-0 |
| L.A. Chargers |
3-2-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-2-0 |
| Indianapolis |
4-3-1 | 1-2-0 | 3-1-1 |
| New England |
4-3-0 | 0-2-0 | 4-0-0 |
| N.Y. Giants |
8-7-0 | 4-3-0 | 4-4-0 |
| Cleveland |
7-7-0 | 5-1-0 | 2-5-0 |
| Pittsburgh |
5-5-0 | 2-3-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Houston |
4-4-0 | 1-0-0 | 3-4-0 |
| Tennessee |
7-8-1 | 4-4-0 | 3-4-1 |
| N.Y. Jets |
7-8-1 | 3-4-0 | 3-4-1 |
| New Orleans |
6-7-0 | 1-4-0 | 5-3-0 |
| Cincinnati |
5-6-0 | 2-3-0 | 3-3-0 |
| Miami |
5-6-0 | 3-2-0 | 2-4-0 |
| Las Vegas |
6-8-0 | 3-3-0 | 3-5-0 |
| Tampa Bay |
3-4-0 | 0-1-0 | 3-3-0 |
| Minnesota |
3-5-0 | 1-2-0 | 2-3-0 |
| San Francisco |
3-5-0 | 1-2-0 | 2-3-0 |
| Arizona |
5-9-0 | 1-5-0 | 4-4-0 |
| Washington |
5-9-0 | 2-3-0 | 3-5-0 |
| Detroit |
2-4-0 | 0-0-0 | 2-4-0 |
| L.A. Rams |
1-2-0 | 0-0-0 | 1-2-0 |
| Baltimore |
1-2-0 | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
NFL underdog ATS trends
- A handful of teams are covered at an elite clip. Denver, Philadelphia, and Atlanta are a combined 12-1-2 as underdogs this season, with Denver and Philadelphia both sitting at a perfect 100% cover rate. That kind of pace rarely holds up over a full season, but it's a clear signal these teams have been live dogs all year.
- Home/road splits reveal some teams are much better bets in one spot than the other. Cleveland covers at a strong 83.3% clip as a home underdog but just 28.6% on the road, while New England and New Orleans show the reverse pattern, struggling badly at home but covering well as road dogs. Knowing which side of that split a team falls into matters more than looking at their overall number alone.
- Volume and consistency separate the middle tier from the extremes. Carolina has been an underdog more than any team on this list (15 games combined) and still covers a respectable 66.7% overall, which carries more weight than a smaller sample posting a flashy percentage over just a handful of games.
- The bottom of the table is almost entirely road-only sample sizes. Baltimore, LA Rams, and Detroit have combined for zero home underdog appearances, meaning their weak overall numbers are being driven entirely by struggles as road dogs, not a full underdog profile.
Betting NFL underdogs ATS
Betting underdogs against the spread is a different discipline than betting them to win outright. A team doesn't need to pull off the upset, it just needs to lose by less than the number, hang around, or cover in garbage time.
That distinction is exactly why ATS records tend to run well above straight-up win rates for underdogs, and why the table above is worth studying closely before you bet the spread this season.
Look past the record and into the sample size
A team covering at 100% sounds like an automatic play, but check the games played before you trust it. Philadelphia's perfect mark comes from a single game, while Denver's comes from six. The larger sample tells you more about who that team actually is as an underdog, and it's the number worth weighting more heavily as the season goes on.
A team like Carolina, sitting at a strong but unspectacular 66.7% across 15 underdog games, has shown that cover rate under far more game situations, different opponents, different spreads, different weeks, than a team with only one or two appearances in the split.
Split home and road performance before you bet
Some teams are simply better bets in one setting than the other, and blending their home and road numbers into a single overall figure can hide that. Cleveland's 83.3% cover rate as a home underdog looks nothing like its 28.6% mark on the road, and betting the Browns as a road dog based on their gaudy overall number would be a mistake.
Before placing a spread bet on any underdog, check whether that team's strength is coming from Sundays at home or from games on the road, since the two situations often produce very different results.
Treat neutral-site games as their own category
A handful of teams on this list show a gap between their overall record and their combined home-plus-road total, almost always the result of neutral-site games played in London, Dublin, Madrid, or Brazil. Those games remove home-field advantage entirely, which changes the calculus for betting a spread compared to a genuine road or home matchup.
If a team's overall number looks inflated or deflated relative to its home/road splits, a neutral-site game buried in the sample is often the reason why.
Use the data as a starting point, not a conclusion
None of these numbers replace matchup-specific handicapping. A team's underdog ATS record reflects who they've played and how those specific games unfolded, not a guarantee of how they'll perform against a new opponent this week.
The strongest use of this data is as a filter: teams with a real track record of covering as underdogs, in the right situation, deserve a closer look before kickoff. Teams without much of a sample, or with a track record built almost entirely on one side of the home/road split, deserve more scrutiny before you trust the number blindly.
NFL Underdog Betting FAQs
Betting an underdog ATS means you're wagering that the team will lose by less than the posted spread, or win outright. The team doesn't need to win the game, it just needs to keep the final margin closer than what the sportsbook expected.
Denver, Philadelphia, and Atlanta have posted the strongest cover rates as underdogs this season, with Denver and Philadelphia both sitting at a perfect 100% through their limited sample sizes. Carolina has covered the most often in terms of raw volume, going 10-5 across 15 underdog appearances.
It depends on the team. Some teams, like Carolina, cover consistently against the spread without winning outright very often, making them a better ATS play than a moneyline play. Teams whose SU and ATS numbers both look strong, like Denver and Atlanta, tend to offer value on either bet type.
Home field advantage still matters even when a team isn't favored. Teams like Buffalo, Dallas, and Houston have been far stronger as home underdogs than as road underdogs in 2025, both straight-up and against the spread, which reflects the general edge home teams carry across the league.
A great deal. A team with a perfect record across one or two underdog appearances tells you far less than a team like Carolina, which has covered at a strong rate across 15 games. Larger samples reflect performance across more opponents, spreads, and game situations, making them more reliable indicators going forward.
A handful of teams show a small gap between their overall underdog record and their combined home-plus-road total. That's typically the result of neutral-site games, played in cities like London, Dublin, or Madrid, which don't count as either a home or road game.
