Western Kentucky vs UTSA C-USA Championship Picks and Predictions: WKU Offense Gives Hilltoppers the Edge

Don't let the records of these two teams fool you - for the last seven weeks, Western Kentucky has been the best team C-USA team, and they'll show why in the Championship game this weekend. Read more in our Western Kentucky vs. UTSA picks and predictions.

Last Updated: Dec 1, 2021 9:51 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Bailey Zappe Western Kentucky Hilltoppers college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will take on the UTSA Roadrunners for the Conference-USA Championship. 

The Roadrunners lost their first game of the season on the road against North Texas, 45-23. While the Roadrunners put together a quality season, they will not be able to complete a perfect season. Still, the season was good enough to compete for a conference championship.

Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers went streaking, winning seven straight games after losing to UTSA, 52-46 back on October 9. Western Kentucky would like to think it’s a better team since that game. Here are our picks and predictions for the Conference-USA Championship game for Friday, December 3. 

Western Kentucky vs UTSA odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Western Kentucky opened as an underdog but is currently a favorite against UTSA despite losing to UTSA earlier this season. Meanwhile, the total has shifted from 73.5 at open to 72.5 and as low as 71.5 at a couple of outlets. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Western Kentucky vs UTSA predictions

Predictions made on 11/30/2021 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Western Kentucky vs UTSA game info

Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Date: Friday, December 3, 2021
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN

Western Kentucky vs UTSA betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Western Kentucky: Joshua Simon TE (Out).
UTSA: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Western Kentucky vs. UTSA.

Western Kentucky vs UTSA picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

It’s hard to argue against Western Kentucky in this spot. Since losing to UTSA, the Hilltoppers are undefeated and have been one of the best offenses in the nation.

Western Kentucky scored 105 points in their last two games and have scored at least 42 points in their last five games, which all resulted in wins. 

On the season, the Hilltoppers are averaging 42.3 points per game while allowing 27 points per game. Western Kentucky is literally averaging 525.1 points per game with quarterback Bailey Zappe leading the league in both passing yards and touchdowns. Zappe has thrown for 4,968 yards with 52 touchdowns on the season. The senior quarterback is one of a kind. 

He’s also been given solid protection in the passing game and has plenty of weapons in the passing game including Jerreth Sterns, who has 12 touchdowns on 127 receptions.

Meanwhile, the defense has struggled to stop the run, giving up 149.4 yards per game. The tackling hasn’t been great either, but UTSA has struggled even more with tackling. Still, the coverage has been fantastic, as Western Kentucky is holding teams to just 261.9 yards per game using a pass rush that has also added plenty of pressure onto opposing quarterback. 

UTSA, on the other hand, is scoring 36.9 points per game while allowing 22.2 points per game. The Roadrunners can score points in a hurry but have struggled to protect quarterback Frank Harris, who still has 23 touchdowns on the season with just five interceptions. 

Defensively, the Roadrunners have excelled at stopping the run, allowing 121.6 yards per game. The pass rush has also been very effective; however, the coverage has been a bit of an issue, despite allowing just 225.2 points per game. 

With a secondary that is going to struggle against Western Kentucky, it’s hard to believe that UTSA will win this game with the momentum that the Hilltoppers have offensively. 

Prediction: Western Kentucky -2.5 (-110)

In the first meeting between these two teams, UTSA won 52-46. In conference championship games, the defense might step up a bit, but even a scoreline of 41-38 would bring this game Over the total. 

Western Kentucky is averaging 43.3 points per game while UTSA is averaging 36.9 points per game. Western Kentucky should have no problems in the passing game and UTSA should be able to use the running game to their advantage in this one too. 

I’ll still grab the Over, even at 71.5.

Prediction: Over 71.5 (-110)

Western Kentucky started off shaky. But after that UTSA loss, the Hilltoppers figured it all out. In the last seven weeks, despite UTSA staying undefeated for most of it, Western Kentucky simply looked like the best Conference USA team. 

I’ll side with Western Kentucky. UTSA is about to lose two straight after starting the season 11-0. 

Pick: Western Kentucky -2.5 (-110)

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