The No. 5 ranked Washington Huskies seem to just keep surviving week after week, and it feels like the college football world is just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Things won’t get any easier today as Washington heads to Corvallis to take on the sneaky good Oregon State Beavers, who are now ranked at No. 11 in the nation according to the College Football Playoff committee.
The Beavers have been good enough that oddsmakers have actually made them the favorites for this massive Pac-12 matchup against the undefeated Huskies.
Can the Huskies keep their impressive run going, or will the Beavs dam up their plans? I break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Washington vs. Oregon State on November 18.
Washington vs Oregon State best odds
Washington vs Oregon State picks and predictions
Washington is led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is among the betting favorites in the Heisman Trophy odds. Penix has gaudy numbers, throwing for 3,533 passing yards with 28 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions.
Thanks to Penix the Huskies have arguably the best passing attack in the country, ranking first in offensive success rate and third in EPA/pass and he will have a great chance to keep slinging it all over the field in this one.
In Oregon State’s two losses to Washington State and Arizona the Beavers have allowed 697 passing yards. They rank 71st in passing yards allowed per game and rank 71st in defensive success rate vs. the pass. That has helped Washington put up a big 41 points per game this season.
Oregon State ranks ninth in the country in yards per play, ninth in yards per rush, and 17th in yards per pass attempt. Overall, the Beavs rank eighth in offensive success rate. And we know at this point that the Huskies have had major issues getting defensive stops.
Washington ranks 102 in yards allowed per game and 75th in defensive success rate. That has resulted in a lot of points allowed recently. The Huskies gave up 28 points to an OK Utah offense, 42 points to USC, and even 33 to a bad Stanford team. And the Huskies have allowed 28 points or more seven times through their seven Pac-12 games. It’s no surprise the Over is 5-2 in that stretch.
I think oddsmakers have the right feeling about this game, even if I think the wrong team may be favored. But this will be a close back-and-forth matchup where both teams are set up to have success on offense, meaning the total is a touch too low here. Give me the Over in what should be an epic Pac-12 clash.
My best bet: Over 62.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Washington vs Oregon State same-game parlay
As always, our same-game parlay starts with our best bet, which for this Pac-12 showdown is the Over 62.5. And while I think this will be a back-and-forth thriller, and understand why Oregon State is a favorite here (more on that later), Washington is the more battle-tested team with the better quarterback, so I’m adding the Huskies on the moneyline.
Let’s close this SGP out by keeping it Penix-oriented. If the Huskies win this game he had another big game through the air. His passing yard prop is set at 318.5. Penix has eclipsed that number in six of his 10 games. The last pass-happy team Oregon State faced was Washington State, and the Beavers allowed Mazzu QB Cam Ward to throw for 422 yards.
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Washington vs Oregon State spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite a 10-0 record, Washington opened this Pac-12 battle as a 1.5-point underdog and early bettors agreed with that sentiment, backing Oregon State and moving the line to 2.5.
There are a few reasons the Huskies are underdogs here. For starters, it’s that defense. As noted above, they have had real issues when it comes to getting stops. That has resulted in Washington being somewhat of a bad bet of late, going just 1-5 ATS in its last six games. But all those games have been as favorites. What do the Huskies have in store for us as underdogs?
And while they may not be covering, they are doing what is needed to win games, and have played the much tougher schedule with wins over Arizona, Oregon, USC, and Utah. What are Oregon State’s big wins outside of Utah? The Beavs lost to Arizona and Washington State. UCLA? Maybe? It’s not great.
Uiagalelei and the Beavers will put up a good fight, but I just think in the end Penix will make more plays in key situations and earn his team the win. If this line gets to three (which I’m not sure it will because bettors will hammer the Huskies) I would take the points with Washington, but at 2.5 I’d stick to the moneyline.
When it comes to the total it hit the board at 64 and the early money has come in on the Under, dropping the number down to 62.5 which is where it sits as of Thursday evening. But as I broke down above, I think this number is low enough to attack the Over.
Washington vs Oregon State betting trend to know
Washington has hit the full game total Over in four of its last five games. Find more college football betting trends for Washington vs Oregon State.
Washington vs Oregon State game info
|Location:||Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR|
|Date:||Saturday, November 18, 2023|
|Kickoff:||7:30 p.m. ET|
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