Someone has to win the ACC Coastal division in its last year, right? That’s how conference divisions work, right? If someone has to, then why not the Pittsburgh Panthers for a second straight year?
A surprising loss to Georgia Tech last week may have knocked Pitt back a step in that pursuit, but facing the Virginia Tech Hokies should serve as a nice rebound this weekend.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh on October 8, with kickoff set for 3:30 ET.
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Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh best odds
Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
There are two routes to take to this best bet. One drags down a quarterback that this handicapper has spent time laughing at before. The other points out a very basic and even more obvious comparison. Let’s take both.
In his last 21 games, Virginia Tech quarterback Grant Wells has thrown 23 touchdowns and 24 interceptions. Hokies head coach Brent Pry tried to claim the two weeks in mid-September in which Wells did not throw an interception was the version of Wells that showed up “in 58 of 60 practices.”
Okay, coach.
Wells threw a pick at North Carolina last week while, perhaps more incriminating, gaining only 139 yards on 26 pass attempts. A 5.3 yards per attempt rate combined with a 61.5% completion rate would not gain a first down, on average, in three downs even if Virginia Tech threw the ball on every play.
Hence, the Hokies scored just 10 points against Gene Chizik’s woeful Tar Heels defense.
Now let’s get to that comparison, which is as clear as “Community” is brilliant. Pick your metric. Pittsburgh’s defense is magnitudes better than North Carolina’s Pop (pop) Warner mishap.
- EPA, (per cfb-graphs.com): Pittsburgh’s defense ranks No. 8 while North Carolina’s is at No. 114.
- SP+: Pitt comes in at No. 75 and UNC is at No. 99.
- Points per game allowed: 25.6 against 33.6.
- Yards allowed per play: 5.05 and 5.96.
- 3rd-down conversion rate against: 35.62% for the Panthers defense and 42.47% for the Heels.
- Red-zone touchdown against percentage: 52.38% for Pittsburgh and — hold on here, this is ugly — 78.57% for North Carolina.
Yet, Virginia Tech scored 10 points. Was there anything flukey? Not so much. Only one turnover, just three penalties, scored on both red-zone opportunities, no missed field goals.
The Hokies simply could not move the ball against North Carolina. They will not be able to against Pittsburgh, either.
My best bet: Virginia Tech team total Under 13.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh spread analysis
The hook here may be harsh. Pittsburgh is favored by 14.5, as of early Friday morning, and even if Virginia Tech isn’t going to score more than twice, asking the Panthers to do so four times may be aggressive.
Pittsburgh ran up the score against Western Michigan and FCS-level Rhode Island in mid-September, but otherwise it has not cracked 21 points since Sept. 10 against Tennessee. Against the Volunteers, the Panthers needed two explosive touchdowns and two field goals to reach the lofty air of 27 points.
After feinting he may still like throwing the ball in the season opener, Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi has doubled down on an old-fashioned offense — one that sometimes looks more like Iowa’s than anyone’s outside of Colorado should.
The onus then will be on the Panthers defense to keep the Hokies well below their team total of 13.5. With Wells behind center, though, it’s conceivable the Pittsburgh defense can be thanked for any cover here.
Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh Over/Under analysis
A total of 41.5 doesn’t require much further conversation. Through only five games, strong offensive performances against FCS-level foes can inflate the math behind otherwise woeful teams. Even if it boosts those by only a point or two, that stands out with a total this low.
And yes, Virginia Tech scoring 27 points against Wofford qualifies as a “strong offensive performance” given the context. Pittsburgh putting up 45 on Rhode Island certainly does.
With another week or two of data, those moments will not distort the math as much as it does now, but that creates an opportunity to exploit at the moment.
Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Virginia Tech’s five games this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh.
Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania |
| Date: | Saturday, October 8, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
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