For Lincoln Riley, the time to prove himself may be now or never.
Much was expected when he arrived at USC four years ago, but the Trojans failed to capitalize on Caleb Williams’s peak seasons.
Their current, slim playoff hopes are as close as Riley has come to fulfilling those expectations.
Adding to the challenge, Oregon is a double-digit favorite this weekend.
My USC vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks recognize that despite claims to the contrary, the Trojans’ defense cannot be trusted in this moment. Kickoff comes at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 22.
USC vs Oregon prediction
USC vs Oregon best bet: Over 59.5 (-105)
The USC Trojans offense has played well all season, typical of a Lincoln Riley roster. The Trojans’ defense, however, received faint praise to start the year and has since dishonored that praise, faltering against both Northwestern and Iowa in recent weeks.
USC won those games, and on paper giving up 17 points to Northwestern and then 21 to Iowa is palatable, but both of those defensive showings were in the bottom 40 percent of expectations, per CFB-graphs.com, particularly woeful against the run.
In fact, USC’s rush defense has been a liability in five of eight games against FBS opponents, only genuinely excelling against Illinois even if that became a loss.
A struggling rush defense is a cause for concern against the best rushing attack in the country, in terms of expected points added per rush attempt. But the good news for the Trojans and Lincoln Riley is that the Oregon Ducks defense has also fallen off a bit lately, slight defensive letdowns at Iowa and against Minnesota.
Slight letdowns are all a Riley offense should need.
You can do it, Notre Dame fans.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 20, 2025
It is just two words.
"Fight on." https://t.co/xujpLMpX25 pic.twitter.com/wyGiRSXKSb
This could turn into a shootout. Do not be surprised if the second half entices the thought that whoever has the ball last will win what could be a Playoff play-in game.
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USC vs Oregon same-game parlay
This second half could get, to use a technical term, points-y. As both these defenses start to struggle, two balanced offenses should find holes wherever they want them.
Both Oregon and USC rank in the Top 25 in finishing drives, just about the only thing that could slow down this shootout.
The Trojans' desperation should provide a chance for a backdoor cover, if nothing else, almost certainly via Jayden Maiava's arm at the end.
USC vs Oregon SGP
- Over 59.5
- USC +10.5
- Jayden Maiava Over 1.5 passing TDs
Our deep-ball SGP: When life gives you Lemon...
If USC is going to keep up in a shootout, Makai Lemon will play a role. He leads the Trojans in every receiving category, has a touchdown catch in each of the last two games (among 21 total catches in those games), and has caught multiple touchdowns twice already this season.
USC vs Oregon SGP
- Over 59.5
- USC +10.5
- Jayden Maiava Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Makai Lemon 2+ TDs
USC vs Oregon game predictions
USC vs Oregon moneyline prediction
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning has a better track record in big games than Lincoln Riley does, and with homefield advantage on their side, all faith should reside with Lanning and the Ducks.
USC vs Oregon spread prediction
If you find this spread north of +10, then taking USC makes plenty of sense. The Trojans have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the country, and if they are down even three scores late, they could still cover +10.5 in the closing minutes.
But the best approach may be to wait to live bet this game. If Oregon gets out to a 7-0 lead, the subsequent inflated spread would be a touch misguided, given the expected back-and-forth nature of this matchup.
USC vs Oregon Over/Under prediction
In the last three seasons, Lanning and Oregon have had seven games with these kinds of postseason stakes, games against Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State and Washington, both in the regular season and in the postseason. Five of those seven games went Over their totals, one exception reaching 65 points with a total of 65.5.
USC vs Oregon odds
- Spread: USC +9.5 | Oregon -9.5
- Moneyline: USC +310 | Oregon -390
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
USC vs Oregon trend to know
USC is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games as an underdog. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs Oregon.
How to watch USC vs Oregon
| Location | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date | Saturday, November 22, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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