One of the marquee games of Week 8 in the college football world goes down in South Bend, where the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the rival No. 20 USC Trojans.
The books expect a comfortable Irish win and a high-scoring game, but I’m looking the other way on both fronts. Check out my USC vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks below to find out why.
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USC vs Notre Dame predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early USC vs Notre Dame spread pick: USC +7.5
The USC Trojans have an elite offense by any definition of the term, and that makes them a threat to cover this 7.5-point spread. They rank second in total offense per game (552.3) and first in yards per play (8.3), posting half a yard more in the latter category than any other team in the country.
Jayden Maiava is the perfect fit for Lincoln Riley’s offense, averaging 10.8 yards per attempt and operating the RPO read offense with aplomb. Makai Lemon (682 receiving yards, six touchdowns) is one of the best skill position players in the country, and Ja’Kobi Lane is a tremendous No. 2 complement.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been running roughshod over teams, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games with an average winning margin of 29.8 points per game. That leads to an inflated line where folks are expecting weekly blowouts until given a reason to think otherwise.
This is a blip too far. The Irish are still a team with an inexperienced redshirt freshman quarterback (CJ Carr). Even if ND grabs an early lead, USC’s offense is potent enough that a backdoor cover will be on the table.
Early USC vs Notre Dame total pick: Under 61.5
USC’s offense is efficient (second in EPA per play) but not fast (92nd in plays per minute). The same can be said about ND’s offense (13th in EPA per play, 81st in plays per minute), meaning both teams will be able to move the ball on Saturday, but not necessarily at a rapid enough tempo to hit the over.
The Trojans will be without their top two running backs as Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders were both carted off the field in Week 7. King Miller filled in admirably against Michigan, but the walk-on still represents a downgrade from Jordan, one of the nation’s best ball carriers.
Notre Dame fielded an elite defense in 2024, so it was surprising to see the Irish regress on that side of the ball through the first 10 quarters of the year. They’ve since locked up three consecutive capable opponents, allowing 9.0 ppg in that span.
USC’s defense gets a bad rap because it was torched by Illinois in a high-viewership game. The Trojans were without their best defensive player (Kamari Ramsey) for that contest and have been fine otherwise (29th in success rate), holding five other opponents below 380 total yards.
USC vs Notre Dame odds
- USC vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -7.5
- USC vs. Notre Dame moneyline: USC +250, Notre Dame -300
- USC vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 61.5
How to watch USC vs Notre Dame
- USC vs. Notre Dame matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Notre Dame
- Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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