Maybe it sounds hyperbolic to suggest an Oklahoma State Cowboys loss this weekend could end Mike Gundy’s two-decade tenure in Stillwater, but those certainly seem to be the stakes entering Week 4.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes may not seem likely to spring that upset, but the Cowboys’ default should keep this game closer than sportsbooks expect.
My Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college football picks see the Cowboys’ flaws and expect an inevitable dearth of action at kickoff at 7:30 ET on Friday, September 19.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State prediction
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State best bet: Under 54.5 (-110)
What do the Oklahoma State Cowboys do well? No, really, do the Cowboys do anything well?
Doubt in Oklahoma State is pervasive thanks to the 69-3 evisceration at Oregon two weeks ago, but their season opener against FCS-level Tennessee-Martin was hardly encouraging.
The Cowboys were 26-point favorites, only to win 27-7 in a game that was closer than that even sounds. They added a touchdown in the final five minutes to gloss up the scoreboard.
Notably, Oklahoma State ran 40 times for 138 yards, an average of 3.45 yards per carry. That insistence did not reflect a cautious game plan. It reflected a broken offense.
Through two games, the Cowboys have run the ball 33.7% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs.com. There may be a sample size worry in that stat, but running at the third-highest rate in the country supersedes that sample size worry.
And that is the best part of Oklahoma State’s statistical profile to this point in the season. If all the two-score favorites can reliably do is run the ball poorly, then where are points expected to come from in this Friday night matchup?
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay
As Oklahoma State's overall wretchedness leans on a rushing game for a sense of competence, it will provide Tulsa a default chance to stay within a score, especially early.
If the Hurricanes can manage just one first-half score, they may be within this spread at halftime, though the Cowboys should find their way to a win eventually. Either that or Mike Gundy can expect to be fired on Sunday.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State SGP
- Under 54.5
- Tulsa first half +6.5
- Oklahoma State moneyline
Our deep-ball SGP: Coming soon!
Check back later this week for our long-shot SGP.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State odds
- Spread: Tulsa +11.5 | Oklahoma State -11.5
- Moneyline: Tulsa +200 | Oklahoma State -385
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State trend to know
Oklahoma State has gone 3-11 ATS in the last season-plus as Mike Gundy’s 20-year head coaching career dwindles toward a disappointing end. Find more college football betting trends for Tulsa vs Oklahoma State.
How to watch Tulsa vs Oklahoma State
| Location | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Date | Friday, September 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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