It might sound like an overstatement to say a loss this weekend could mark the end of Mike Gundy’s 20-year run in Stillwater—but heading into Week 4, that’s starting to feel like the reality.
While the Tulsa Golden Hurricane may not be the most obvious threat, Oklahoma State’s recent struggles suggest this matchup could be tighter than the oddsmakers think when the ball kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
My Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college football picks highlight the Cowboys’ glaring issues — and anticipate a low-energy affair on Friday, September 19.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State prediction
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State best bet: Under 54.5 (-110)
What do the Oklahoma State Cowboys do well? No, really, do the Cowboys do anything well?
Doubt in Oklahoma State is pervasive thanks to the 69-3 evisceration at Oregon two weeks ago, but their season opener against FCS-level Tennessee-Martin was hardly encouraging.
The Cowboys were 26-point favorites, only to win 27-7 in a game that was closer than that even sounds. They added a touchdown in the final five minutes to gloss up the scoreboard.
Notably, Oklahoma State ran 40 times for 138 yards, an average of 3.45 yards per carry. That insistence did not reflect a cautious game plan. It reflected a broken offense.
Through two games, the Cowboys have run the ball 33.7% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs.com. There may be a sample size worry in that stat, but running at the third-highest rate in the country supersedes that sample size worry.
And that is the best part of Oklahoma State’s statistical profile to this point in the season. If all the two-score favorites can reliably do is run the ball poorly, then where are points expected to come from in this Friday night matchup?
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay
As Oklahoma State's overall wretchedness leans on a rushing game for a sense of competence, it will provide the Tulsa Golden Hurricane a default chance to stay within a score, especially early.
If the Hurricanes can manage just one first-half score, they may be within this spread at halftime, though the Cowboys should find their way to a win eventually. Either that or Mike Gundy can expect to be fired on Sunday.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State 3-leg SGP
- Under 54.5
- Tulsa first half +6.5
- Oklahoma State moneyline
Our deep-ball SGP: Hayes, would you look at that?
Betting on Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes to get within sniffing range of 200 yards may be a surprise since the Golden Hurricanes' relative struggles this season, but realize that they still throw the ball nearly 4% more often than would be expected from an average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs.com, and then also realize that Oklahoma State's defense is particularly terrible against the pass.
Hayes may not be efficient tonight, but he should reap gross stats.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State 4-leg SGP
- Under 54.5
- Tulsa first half +6.5
- Oklahoma State moneyline
- Baylor Hayes Over 168.5 passing yards
ulsa vs Oklahoma State game predictions
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State moneyline prediction
Losing to Navy last week was a bad sign, but Tulsa losing to New Mexico State two weeks ago was a greater worry. The Hurricanes gave up a touchdown in the closing minutes to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and such a habit should doom any thoughts of an upset in Stillwater.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State spread prediction
A two-score favorite with a failing offense should not be trusted to cover a spread of -11.5.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State Over/Under prediction
Until Oklahoma State shows a competent offense, a total north of 51 is a foolish choice by the sportsbooks.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State odds
- Spread: Tulsa +11.5 | Oklahoma State -11.5
- Moneyline: Tulsa +200 | Oklahoma State -385
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State trend to know
Oklahoma State has gone 3-11 ATS in the last season-plus as Mike Gundy’s 20-year head coaching career dwindles toward a disappointing end. Find more college football betting trends for Tulsa vs Oklahoma State.
How to watch Tulsa vs Oklahoma State
| Location | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Date | Friday, September 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State latest injuries
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State weather
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