Troy vs UTSA Prediction: Cure Bowl Odds and Picks

A tradition unlike any other except all its others, a December bowl game in Orlando. One of three bowl games at Camping World Stadium this year, though there is no longer one known as the Camping World Bowl, the Duluth Trading Co. Cure Bowl between the UTSA Roadrunners and Troy Trojans pits two Top-25 conference champions.

Perhaps the pure-hearted college football fan would rather the Roadrunners have gotten a shot at a Big-12 foe or the Trojans against an SEC opponent, but the gambling college football fan recognizes this should be one of the most competitive bowl games of the season.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for UTSA vs Troy on December 16, with kickoff set for 3:00 ET.

Troy vs UTSA best odds

Troy vs UTSA picks and predictions

Strengths make fights. The fight to enjoy Friday will come when UTSA has the ball, one of the nation’s best offenses — No. 15 per SP+ metrics — going against one of the best defenses — No. 10, per SP+.

The Roadrunners are efficient whether rushing or throwing, while the Trojans fare a touch better against the pass, though both aspects are strengths.

UTSA’s boosters in San Antonio came together to give quarterback Frank Harris reason to return for a — checks notes, does math again, ponders a LeBron James’ “not one, not two” reference — seventh season in 2023. It could not be previously assumed Harris would play in the bowl game, given at least a few Power Five teams would have lined up for his services if he entered the transfer portal, so that announcement last week provided some certainty about the Roadrunners' offense.

The San Antonio hubbub around that announcement focused on Harris’ return as UTSA jumps into the AAC next year, and he will be crucial in that step up in competition, but the competition dials up before then.

Troy is one of the Top-40 teams in the country if ignoring the rankings. That is not a back-handed compliment, but rather a straightforward one. The Trojans would likely be favored against Big Ten title game participant Purdue or ACC runner-up North Carolina. They are good, leaps and bounds better than any of UTSA’s competition this season aside from Texas.

This handicap should be more complicated than wondering if Harris is up for the task of that elevated defense, but it may be that simple. And that answer will certainly help inform some 2023 preseason UTSA evaluations.

It is hard to imagine he is not up for that task. Back in September at Texas and against Houston, arguably the two toughest teams the Roadrunners faced, Harris threw for 559 yards on a 66.7% completion rate with three touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 101 rushing yards and a score.

Admittedly, the Cougars’ defense is flawed, but on a player-by-player basis, it is more talented than most in Conference USA; and Harris hardly struggled against the Longhorns, throwing for 222 yards. UTSA’s defense just could not slow Texas in a 41-20 loss.

Of late, Harris has found absurd efficiency. In the last three games, he has completed 80.8% of his passes with 11.32 yards per attempt, throwing nine TDs with only one interception, and adding four more scores on the ground.

Frankly, pun not intended but allowed, Harris has not shown anything this season that would suggest any Group of Five defense will slow him.

Western Kentucky threw for 406 yards against Troy. In the Sun Belt title game, a clearly-reduced Grayson McCall led Coastal Carolina to 432 yards. This defense is very good, but it is not perfect.

In a game that opened as a pick’em, taking the experienced and now refocused veteran quarterback at plus money makes sense, especially since if any unit is prone to falling short in a bowl game, it is usually a defense.

My best bet: UTSA moneyline (+104 at FanDuel)

Troy vs UTSA spread analysis

Bowl game lines tend to move right away in December and then just before kickoff, first moving off the opening number as any game does and then waiting weeks before the general public feels a need to pile in on a standalone midafternoon weekday game.

Expect to read this disclaimer a few times this bowl season: If wanting to catch this game at a current number, do not wait until Friday. At some point, the line will move. If guessing, and not just because of the above best bet, the public will side with the underdog because that is the more fun thing to do for a standalone midafternoon weekday game.

The line has hardly moved from that opening pick’em, with Troy favored by a point as of Monday morning. If that holds, it will be the first time UTSA has been an underdog since its trip to Texas and only the second time this season, also including the season-opener against Houston, a 37-35 overtime loss.

Troy vs UTSA Over/Under analysis

Not only will it be a standalone midafternoon weekday game, but it should be an entertaining one. A 54.5-point total argues for a 28-27 result. Just think about it now, ducking out of work for an “off-site meeting” around 4:00 and enjoying a holiday sazerac while watching Harris navigate multiple second-half scoring drives to get the Roadrunners their first-ever bowl win.

The Over/Under very much will depend on UTSA’s offense, if that is not obvious given that strength-vs-strength thought will be the driving focus of the entire game. The Roadrunners have scored at least 30 points in every game against a Group of Five opponent this season, so they are certainly capable of hitting the Over as you follow that sazerac with a stout.

Troy vs UTSA betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in UTSA's last five non-conference games, including three this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Troy vs. UTSA.

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