On the surface, the Old Dominion Monarchs and the Troy Trojans are similar in profile. Both at 6-3 and in the top half of their respective Sun Belt divisions, why would the Monarchs be double-digit favorites in this midweek matchup as both come off extended off weeks?
My Troy vs. Old Dominion predictions and college football picks recognize that the Trojans have found their way to bowl eligibility largely thanks to a beneficial schedule.
The Monarchs should expose some weaknesses at kickoff at 7:30 ET on Thursday, November 13.
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Troy vs Old Dominion prediction
Troy vs Old Dominion best bet: Colton Joseph Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Troy’s rush defense is statistically superior to its passing defense, yet opponents still run against the Trojans nearly as often as possible, rushing the ball against Troy at the seventh-highest relative rate in the country, per CFB-graphs.com.
Clearly, the Trojans are weaker against the rush than surface-level statistics suggest.
Some opponents have indeed gashed Troy. Memphis gained 217 yards on the ground, South Alabama found 265, and Texas State ran for 326. Even Louisiana averaged 4.38 yards per rush while gaining 184 yards to end October.
Enter Old Dominion quarterback Colton Joseph. He has cleared this number in five of eight FBS games this season, and it should be the Monarchs’ emphasis on Thursday night.
Troy vs Old Dominion same-game parlay
The worst unit in this matchup is Troy’s offense. The best unit is Old Dominion’s defense. That combination should explain the faith in the Monarchs, that defense likely dooming the Trojans’ offense to such a bad night that it assures the Under on its own.
Troy vs Old Dominion SGP
- Colton Joseph Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
- Old Dominion -11.5
- Under 52.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Joseph makes hay running
Colton Joseph should have been more heralded this season. The dual-threat quarterback has tallied 19 passing touchdowns while averaging 9.7 yards per attempt, scoring another nine times on the ground and averaging 68.9 rushing yards per game.
In this exact matchup, he should focus almost entirely on the ground attack. Troy is particularly susceptible against quarterback rushes, ranking No. 86 in defending designed quarterback runs, per CFB-graphs.com.
Troy vs Old Dominion SGP
- Colton Joseph Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
- Old Dominion -11.5
- Under 52.5
- Colton Joseph Under 235.5 Passing Yards
- Colton Joseph Touchdown
Troy vs Old Dominion odds
- Spread: Troy +11.5 | Old Dominion -11.5
- Moneyline: Troy +370 | Old Dominion -480
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Troy vs Old Dominion trend to know
All three of Old Dominion’s wins in Sun Belt play have featured its opponent falling short of its Team Total. Find more college football betting trends for Troy vs Old Dominion.
How to watch Troy vs Old Dominion
| Location | S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA |
| Date | Thursday, November 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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