On paper, the Old Dominion Monarchs and Troy Trojans look evenly matched. Both sit at 6-3 and near the top of their Sun Belt divisions, so why are the Monarchs double-digit favorites in this midweek matchup after both teams enjoyed extended breaks?
My Troy vs. Old Dominion predictions and college football picks point out that the Trojans reached bowl eligibility largely due to a favorable schedule.
The Monarchs should expose some weaknesses at kickoff at 7:30 ET on Thursday, November 13.
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Troy vs Old Dominion prediction
Troy vs Old Dominion best bet: Colton Joseph Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Troy’s rush defense is statistically superior to its passing defense, yet opponents still run against the Trojans nearly as often as possible, rushing the ball against Troy at the seventh-highest relative rate in the country, per CFB-graphs.com.
Clearly, the Trojans are weaker against the rush than surface-level statistics suggest.
Some opponents have indeed gashed Troy. Memphis gained 217 yards on the ground, South Alabama found 265, and Texas State ran for 326. Even Louisiana averaged 4.38 yards per rush while gaining 184 yards to end October.
Enter Old Dominion quarterback Colton Joseph. He has cleared this number in five of eight FBS games this season, and it should be the Monarchs’ emphasis on Thursday night.
Troy vs Old Dominion same-game parlay
The worst unit in this matchup is Troy’s offense. The best unit is Old Dominion’s defense. That combination should explain the faith in the Monarchs, that defense likely dooming the Trojans’ offense to such a bad night that it assures the Under on its own.
Troy vs Old Dominion SGP
- Colton Joseph Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Old Dominion -11.5
- Under 52.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Joseph makes hay running
Colton Joseph should have been more heralded this season. The dual-threat quarterback has tallied 19 passing touchdowns while averaging 9.7 yards per attempt, scoring another nine times on the ground and averaging 68.9 rushing yards per game.
In this exact matchup, he should focus almost entirely on the ground attack. Troy is particularly susceptible against quarterback rushes, ranking No. 86 in defending designed quarterback runs, per CFB-graphs.com.
Troy vs Old Dominion SGP
- Colton Joseph Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Old Dominion -11.5
- Under 52.5
- Colton Joseph Under 235.5 passing yards
- Colton Joseph touchdown
Troy vs Old Dominion game predictions
Troy vs Old Dominion moneyline prediction
Troy has put together a better season than expected. The Trojans struggled against FCS-level Nicholls State in their season opener, but by mid-September, Gerad Parker’s second season as head coach had found a groove, winning five straight.
Looking at those four wins in Sun Belt play, those opponents are a combined 5-16 in conference play. Troy should be viewed with some skepticism.
Old Dominion, meanwhile, has at least beaten some quality opposition, most notably blowing out Coastal Carolina. The Monarchs have the higher ceiling and should be trusted in this matchup.
Troy vs Old Dominion spread prediction
Advanced metrics expected this spread to be closer to a touchdown. It opened at an even 10 points, and climbing all the way to -11.5 argues for Old Dominion’s matchup advantages more than anything. Frankly, the Monarchs should have the edge in just about every aspect of this game.
Troy vs Old Dominion Over/Under prediction
A total as high as 52.5 is hard to fathom when Troy’s offense should struggle this much. The Trojans’ offense ranks No. 113 in opponent-adjusted expected points added per snap, lacking strength in any particular regard.
Troy vs Old Dominion odds
- Spread: Troy +11.5 | Old Dominion -11.5
- Moneyline: Troy +370 | Old Dominion -480
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Troy vs Old Dominion trend to know
All three of Old Dominion’s wins in Sun Belt play have featured its opponent falling short of its Team Total. Find more college football betting trends for Troy vs Old Dominion.
How to watch Troy vs Old Dominion
| Location | S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA |
| Date | Thursday, November 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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