The 3-2 South Carolina Gamecocks visit the No. 13 Kentucky Wildcats in an East Division SEC showdown at Kroger Field on Saturday.
The Gamecocks enter on a two-game win streak after beating Charlotte and South Carolina State by a combined 76 points. The Wildcats are fresh off a heart-wrenching 22-19 loss to No. 9 Mississippi in which turnovers and a pair of botched extra-point attempts ultimately cost Kentucky the game.
The 4-1 Wildcats return home and are listed as 9.5-point favorites against a visiting team that is 0-2 in conference play.
Below are our best free college football picks and predictions for the Week 6 clash between South Carolina and Kentucky.
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South Carolina vs Kentucky best odds
South Carolina vs Kentucky picks and predictions
The Wildcats were so close to earning Mark Stoops his first road win against an SEC West opponent — while also remaining undefeated on the year — but two fumbles by quarterback Will Levis and an illegal motion penalty that nullified a touchdown prevented Kentucky from defeating Lane Kiffin’s surging Mississippi squad.
Special teams play was also a major issue for Kentucky in the loss. The Wildcats failed to convert on two extra-point attempts and missed a 39-yard field goal in the first half, ultimately resulting in the end of an eight-game winning streak spanning the last two seasons.
Levis, who had the added pressure of several NFL personnel evaluating his draft stock from inside the stadium, finished the game with 220 yards on 18 of 24 passing and a pair of touchdown passes, while running back Chris Rodriguez Jr., in his first game of the season back from suspension, led the rushing attack with 72 yards and a score on 19 carries.
The Wildcats defense gave up a four-yard rushing touchdown to Mississippi back Zach Evans and a 49-yard scoring dash to Quinshon Judkins in the first quarter — as well as a field goal in the second quarter — but held the Rebels to just three points for the entire second half.
Mississippi QB Jaxson Dart went 15 of 29 passing for 213 yards and an interception while adding 40 yards on the ground.
The SEC’s top-ranked rushing offense averaged 4.8 yards per carry against Kentucky’s run defense and tallied 186 yards for the day.
Kentucky was able to halt the Rebels' momentum but couldn’t get out of its own way on offense. With the return of Rodriguez, there’s hope UK can rely more on the ground game against South Carolina’s porous run defense and eliminate some of those ugly turnovers.
The Gamecocks rank second to last in the conference in rushing yards allowed (185.4) and surrendered 295 yards in a 44-30 defeat to Arkansas and 208 in a 48-7 blowout by Georgia.
South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s also turning the ball over too often.
Look for Kentucky — who has held all five of its opponents to nine points or fewer in the second half — to take control of the game by establishing the run and forcing a handful of turnovers to keep the Gamecocks from staging any sort of comeback in the second half.
My best bet: Second half Under 23.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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South Carolina vs Kentucky spread analysis
South Carolina is 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games against Kentucky but stayed close with the Wildcats last season, falling 16-10 at home.
The Gamecocks should be feeling confident after back-to-back dominant victories, though FCS South Carolina State and 1-5 Charlotte are hardly the same caliber as Kentucky.
While UK has made its fair share of mistakes, the Gamecocks lead the SEC in interceptions thrown and are minus-6 in turnover margin.
Rattler had one of his better passing performances against South Carolina State, completing 21 of 27 passes for 212 yards, but he still turned the ball over twice. Against Georgia, the third-best pass defense in the SEC, he went 13 of 25 for 118 yards and was picked off twice.
Kentucky ranks second in the SEC in pass defense and is tied for fourth in interceptions.
While Rattler will give UK plenty to handle when he’s playing well, he’s too turnover-prone and will eventually commit a few costly mistakes.
The Gamecocks looked better in the run game in their last two, but they averaged 3.1 yards per carry and totaled 92 yards rushing against Georgia, while Arkansas held South Carolina to 40 yards on 29 attempts.
The Wildcats should be able to get the job done at home, so long as they don’t let the emotional letdown from last week drag them down further.
UK is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 conference games, while South Carolina is 1-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 0-4 ATS in its last four meetings in Kentucky.
South Carolina vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis
Both Kentucky and South Carolina rank Top 5 in the SEC in pass defense, while Kentucky is eighth in the conference in run defense and the Gamecocks are 13th.
Running back Marshawn Lloyd broke out against Charlotte and South Carolina State with 249 rushing yards and four scores across those games.
Rattler will need a clean outing to keep his team in the fight against Kentucky, who should be able to push the ball down the field through Levis, even with a dinged-up finger from the Mississippi loss.
The Over is 5-0 in South Carolina’s last five road games against teams with a winning home record and 10-1 in the Gamecocks’ last 11 road games, while the Over has hit in five of the last seven matchups in Kentucky.
The Under is 4-0 in Kentucky’s last four vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Wildcats’ last six overall. The Under has also hit in 25 of Kentucky’s last 36 conference games.
If Rodriguez can come out strong against a weak South Carolina run defense, UK should be able to control the clock and frustrate Rattler enough to keep him from doing too much damage on the other side of the ball. Turnovers may be prevalent on both sides, but Kentucky will have the advantage and get itself back in the win column.
South Carolina vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for South Carolina vs. Kentucky.
South Carolina vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky |
| Date: | Saturday, October 8, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
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