It’s still early, but the returns haven’t been great for either side. Week 5’s showdown will shed some light on which team is in a better spot despite the false starts to the season.
Will Boise State persevere despite the inner turmoil, or will the Aztecs prove too stout? Check out our college football betting picks and predictions for San Diego vs. Boise State below to find out.
San Diego State vs Boise State best odds
San Diego State vs Boise State picks and predictions
Neither of these teams has performed up to the typical standard they've set for themselves, floundering out of the gates to start the year. It’s shown in the betting market, where both Boise State (0-3-1 ATS) and San Diego State (1-3 ATS) have been highly unprofitable.
Let’s start with Boise State, which experienced a bit of upheaval following last week’s embarrassing 27-10 defeat to UTEP. Offensive coordinator Tim Plough was let go after leading a year and a half of entirely underwhelming offense in Idaho. Then, fourth-year starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. For a program that has seemingly been heading in the wrong direction for three years, it’s fair to question if head coach Andy Avalos is now on the hot seat.
You can’t get much worse than this San Diego State passing offense. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister, despite being a former Oregon Duck and Virginia Tech Hokie, simply is not getting the job done. Through four games, the offense is averaging just 73.8 passing yards per game — 130th in the country. That’s ahead of only the UMass Minutemen, who have won just three games over the last four years.
It’s certainly never a good sign when you rank behind every service academy and their triple-option attack in passing yards per game. Army (148.7), Navy (128.7), and Air Force (74.5) have all had more potent aerial assaults than the Aztecs. Burmeister has been an abject disaster, completing 53.1% of his passes for 3.6 yards per attempt.
Both teams rank outside of the Top 100 in predicted points per play (Boise State 104th, San Diego State 125th) and neither team has found its answer at the quarterback position. Both defenses are the strength of their respective teams. Give me the Under.
My best bet: Under 39 (-105 at DraftKings)
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San Diego State vs Boise State spread analysis
Both teams have been on a rough stretch against the spread. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, failing to defend Albertsons Stadium. The Aztecs have been brutal in their own right, going 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 1-4-1 in their last six conference games. Something has to give, right?
At least the Aztecs can take solace that their two losses both came against Pac-12 teams — Utah and Arizona. The downside is that they weren’t competitive in either, getting blasted 35-7 by the defending Pac-12 champion Utes and falling 38-20 to the Wildcats in the opener.
Boise State had a very manageable non-conference schedule and still managed to drop two games. A loss to Oregon State is no big deal, although failing to cover the spread by 15 points in that game shows how overvalued this team was in the betting market to start the year. An ugly 27-10 loss to UTEP results in a -33.5 cover margin, as the Broncos were hefty 16.5-point favorites in that contest yet fell completely flat.
Both teams have been off to a rough start this year, but there’s no way I could recommend playing Boise State as the favorite right now when they’ve proven to be massively overvalued and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
San Diego State vs Boise State Over/Under analysis
Let’s talk a little bit more about how dreadful both offenses have been this season.
The Broncos have fallen inexplicably far for a program that was so consistent over the last 20 years. They rank 96th in success rate and 126th in explosiveness, so they haven’t been efficient or dangerous by any definition of the words.
The offensive line needs a major overhaul, as the unit ranks 113th in line yards and 103rd in havoc allowed. Unless new starting quarterback can Taylen Green can breathe some life into this passing attack, this team is in trouble. The Broncos rank just 113th in passing downs PPA and 125th in passing downs success rate.
Struggling along the offensive line makes it hard to stay out of passing situations, and this team has been downright dreadful when forced to throw the ball. The Aztecs haven’t been their usual selves defensively, but they’re still allowing just 393.3 yards per game.
San Diego State’s offense ranks outside the Top 120 in PPA (125th), success rate (124th), passing downs PPA (122nd), passing plays PPA (131st), and passing success rate (131st). They’ve been too predictable and lack any form of dynamism, and now face a Broncos defense that ranks 11th in success rate.
San Diego State vs Boise State betting trend to know
The Under is 18-7-1 in San Diego State's last 26 conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Diego State vs. Boise State.
San Diego State vs Boise State game info
|Location:||Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID|
|Date:||Friday, September 30, 2022|
|Kickoff:||8:00 p.m. ET|
|TV:||FOX Sports 1|
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