The Sam Houston State Bearkats better get used to road trips. They will not play in Huntsville at any point this season due to stadium construction, so this trip to face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is not all that different from a claimed home game.
Consider that lack of a home and the likely 0-1 start to the season are just a couple of the reasons to worry about the Bearkats’ season.
My Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky predictions and college football picks trust the Hilltoppers to win easily, in part because of the terrible schematic choices of new Bearkats head coach Phil Longo.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky prediction
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Best bet: Western Kentucky -10.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
The best power ratings or advanced math favor the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers by only eight or 8.5 points. Then why trust a spread of 10.5 points?
Because power ratings and advanced math cannot quite grasp the massive turnover on both these rosters. For one team, that is more of a concern than the other.
The Sam Houston Bearkats return zero starters on defense, for one thing. This is the peril of a decent Group of Five team undergoing a coaching change because its coach took a better job. Some players go with him, many others are raided by other schools, and overall progress is lost.
The Hilltoppers return a walloping three starters total, yet they have more continuity than most teams in Conference USA, even though much of that continuity comes from FCS-level Abilene Christian.
Western Kentucky imported Abilene’s offensive coordinator, Rick Bowie, and quarterback Maverick McIvor. Their familiarity should produce offensive results.
And given Sam Houston State head coach Phil Longo’s insistence on an up-tempo offense even when he does not have a defense that can hold up to extensive snaps, the Hilltoppers’ offensive familiarity should get many chances to capitalize.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky same-game parlay
Phil Longo does not know what brakes are. It is not that he prefers an “all gas, no brakes” offense. It is that he is outright unfamiliar with the concept of brakes. To Longo, offensive playcalling is simply “All gas.”
That may sound great if you have offensive playmakers, but it dooms a defense, part of what undid Longo’s time at Wisconsin and North Carolina this decade, not that Gene Chizik helped the Tar Heels' cause. Giving Maverick McIvor a plethora of possessions should yield only gaudy stats for McIvor.
Our deep-ball SGP: Humphrey's Hits Paydirt
With Longo’s penchant for pace, Sam Houston State receiver Qua’vez Humphreys should get a few deep looks. He caught four touchdown passes last season from quarterback Hunter Watson, averaging 19.25 yards per catch.
If Watson looks for Humphreys just once every other possession, that could be eight targets. Catch one or two of those and it seems likely Humpheys will find the end zone.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky odds
- Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky spread: Western Kentucky -10.5
- Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky moneyline: Sam Houston +340, Western Kentucky -450
- Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under: 61.5
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know
Western Kentucky has gone 5-1 against the spread in its first game against a Group of Five opponent each season in head coach Tyson Helton’s six years in Bowling Green. Find more college football betting trends for Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky.
How to watch Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky
| Location | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY |
| Date | Saturday, August 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
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