The Purdue Boilermakers will look to extend their four-game win streak when they visit Camp Randall on Saturday afternoon for a Big Ten showdown with the Wisconsin Badgers.
Purdue notched a fourth straight win after holding off Nebraska in a 43-37 victory at home and now faces a 3-4 Wisconsin team that has been up and down all season.
Getting a road win in Madison is long overdue for Purdue, who last beat Wisconsin as the visiting team in a 26-23 decision in 2003. Since then, the Badgers have prevailed in 15 straight against Purdue, with last year’s meeting resulting in a 30-13 beating in West Lafayette.
Will the red-hot Boilermakers finally turn a corner in their rivalry with Wisconsin, who is listed as a 2.5-point home favorite? Read our college football picks and predictions below to find out.
Purdue vs Wisconsin best odds
Purdue vs Wisconsin picks and predictions
Against the Big Ten’s worst defense, Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell tied his season high in touchdown passes with four and threw for 391 yards on 64.8% passing. Wideout Charlie Jones was on the receiving end of 132 of those yards and scored twice, once in each half.
But while O’Connell and Jones produced their own magic on the field, freshman running back Devin Mockobee also had a standout day in the ground game, recording a career-high 178 yards to go along with a rushing touchdown in the second quarter.
Yet, Purdue let Nebraska hang around throughout the contest and gave up 12.2 yards per pass to quarterback Casey Thompson, but also picked him off twice and turned those giveaways into points.
The Boilermakers finished the game with 608 yards of offense and surrendered 476 to a Nebraska team riding a two-win streak since firing Scott Frost and replacing him with interim coach Mickey Joseph.
The difference in the game was Purdue’s success on third down (9-for-18), winning the turnover battle, and controlling the clock for 42:42. The Boilermakers rank 12th in the country in time-of-possession percentage (55.4%).
Wisconsin is also working with an interim head coach after Paul Chryst got fired following a 2-3 start. With Jim Leonhard now at the helm of the team, the Badgers are 1-1 with a 42-7 beatdown of 1-5 Northwestern and a double-overtime defeat to Michigan State.
In last week’s 34-28 setback, the Badgers stuffed the Spartans’ run game, holding the rushing attack to 99 yards but were outgained 389 to 283 on offense. Penalties were rampant on both sides, and both of Wisconsin’s turnovers proved costly, including a fumble in overtime that set up Michigan State’s game-winning touchdown.
Against the pass, Wisconsin has had issues, and the Badgers will likely have trouble keeping up with Purdue. The Boilermakers are averaging 313.4 yards per game through the air, and Wisconsin just allowed 389 to a middling Michigan State pass attack.
Aside from their dominant performance against a lowly Northwestern team, the Badgers have given up at least 34 points to each of its conference opponents this season.
If O’Connell and Jones can keep the momentum going from last week, Purdue should be able to reach the end zone enough times to hit the Over on 24.5 by the end of regulation.
My best bet: Purdue team total Over 24.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
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Purdue vs Wisconsin spread analysis
In Jeff Brohm’s sixth season as Purdue’s head coach, he has his team tied for first in the Big Ten West with No. 18 Illinois and has a chance to crack the AP Top 25 with a win on Saturday.
While his team is 3-4 against the spread for the season, the Boilermakers are 2-1 ATS on the road, with a similar 2-1 straight-up record as the away team. Purdue’s lone road loss this year is a close, 32-29 heartbreaker at Syracuse, who is currently 6-0 and 14th in the country.
The Badgers own a similar 3-4 ATS record overall and are 2-2 ATS at home. They also boast a 2-1 ATS record in their last three against Purdue. Across their 15-win streak over the Boilermakers, the Badgers are 9-12 ATS, and the favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
However, the road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven matchups, and this time around, Purdue is the better team heading into this battle. The line opened between 2 and 2.5 points and has remained fairly steady leading up to Saturday’s clash.
Wisconsin will need a whole lot to go right for it on defense and a strong outing from quarterback Graham Mertz, who recorded 131 yards, a pair of touchdown passes and an interception on 58.3% passing against a Michigan State defense that ranks fourth to last in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed.
While the Boilermakers’ pass defense is in the Bottom 5 of the conference in yards surrendered, it’s also racked up seven interceptions during its four-game win streak.
Wisconsin isn’t forcing enough takeaways against top-tier competition, and without a few turnovers by Purdue, the Badgers are at risk of seeing their string of 15 victories in the series brought to an end on their own field.
Purdue vs Wisconsin Over/Under analysis
Wisconsin’s run game is a shadow of last year’s, going from 210.9 yards per game (second most in the Big Ten) in 2021 to 170.6, ranking middle of the pack in the conference.
Against Illinois’ run stop unit, which ranks third in the nation (77.9 yards allowed), the Badgers netted two yards on 24 carries in the 34-10 home loss, marking Wisconsin’s lowest single-game rushing total since 2015.
Purdue’s run defense isn’t the caliber of Illinois’, but it’s strong enough to keep Wisconsin from doing enough damage. The Boilermakers held Minnesota to 47 yards and a 1.8 yards-per-carry average, while Maryland managed 72 rushing yards on 25 carries.
Mertz will need to move the ball through the air and keep the Purdue defense on its toes, while the Boilermakers will look to keep a balanced attack against Wisconsin.
The Over is 4-1 in Purdue’s last five conference games and 7-2 in its last nine games overall. It’s also hit in each of Wisconsin’s last five games and each of its last four conference tilts.
The total opened around 52.5 at most sportsbooks and has settled around 51. The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams, with three of the last five matchups resulting in scores totaling 69 or more points.
Purdue vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
Wisconsin is 0-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Purdue vs. Wisconsin.
Purdue vs Wisconsin game info
|Location:||Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI|
|Date:||Saturday, October 22, 2022|
|Kickoff:||3:30 p.m. ET|
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