It won’t be a true home game, as the crowd is expected to feature more Indiana Hoosiers fans.
Still, the Miami Hurricanes will enjoy a rare advantage in the College Football Playoff title game by playing for a national championship in their own stadium.
My Miami vs. Indiana predictions favor the Hurricanes for reasons beyond that home-field setting, though it’s certainly worth noting in our college football picks for Monday, January 19.
Miami vs Indiana predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Miami vs Indiana spread pick: Miami +7.5
Bettors who lean entirely on recent trends should be in shambles in this title game.
Miami is 4-0 against the spread in its last four, including two wins as a one-possession underdog. The Hurricanes have exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13 points in those four games.
Meanwhile, Indiana is also 4-0 ATS in its last four games, including two wins as one-possession favorites. The Hoosiers have surpassed bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 22.3 points in those four games.
However, the recent-trends case for the Hoosiers over the Hurricanes is based almost entirely on pace of play.
Miami is happier to slow a game down. In a national championship game, that should be somewhat expected.
Most pertinently in this instance, the Hurricanes have the better offensive and defensive lines, they have the more experienced quarterback — and, as already noted, homefield advantage.
Indiana deserves every ounce of praise and confidence, but after facing Miami’s defensive line, that could all go out the window. Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza has struggled to limit the damage caused by sacks, and given the way Miami’s defensive ends have played throughout the Playoff, that should be a major concern for Indiana.
Yes, Akheem Mesidor injured his shoulder in the Playoff semifinal, but he took photos with fans after the game and was decisively confident that his shoulder will be alright. Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. are the key to Miami’s title hopes, and as long as both are on the field, a hook past a touchdown is too much doubt.
Early Miami vs Indiana total pick: Under 48.5
Miami will try to grind this game down. A slower pace will best emphasize the Hurricanes’ defensive strengths.
Could Indiana still break this game open and turn it into a relative shootout? Sure, but as soon as one team has a clear want to slow down a game, the Under becomes intriguing.
Furthermore, 48 is obviously a key number in college football totals betting.
Faith in the Hurricanes at +7.5 should be paired with an Under 48.5. They are both bets on Miami’s defensive ends.
Miami vs Indiana odds
- Miami vs. Indiana spread: Indiana -7.5
- Miami vs. Indiana moneyline: Miami +260, Indiana -320
- Miami vs. Indiana Over/Under: 48
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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