The old adage is: “It's hard to beat a team twice.” If the Oregon Ducks want to prove that true, they'll need to find more success in just about every facet of the game against the Indiana Hoosiers than they found in their mid-October loss.
The Ducks struggled in every regard, but the greatest failure was in pass protection. My Oregon vs. Indiana predictions expect the Ducks to fare better offensively, but that will be true only if the offensive line holds up in the Peach Bowl.
Oregon vs Indiana props for the Peach Bowl
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Dierre Hill Jr. |
Over 32.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| Dante Moore |
Over 216.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Fernando Mendoza |
Over 208.5 passing yards | -114 |
Dierre Hill Jr. Over 32.5 rushing yards
Lead Oregon Ducks running back Jordan Davison will miss the Peach Bowl after suffering a broken clavicle in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. He leads the Ducks with 15 rushing touchdowns, and he's been their leading rusher in both Playoff wins thus far.
Without him, the betting question becomes, who will absorb more of Davison’s work, veteran Noah Whittington or freshman Dierre Hill Jr.?
Bet on the latter. Hill has seen more and more work as the season has progressed, and his big-play capabilities could cash in on this yardage prop on any given carry.
Hill struggled mightily in the first matchup with Indiana, but he saw continued action in the weeks that followed. Perhaps most pertinently, Hill took seven carries for 45 yards at Iowa to start November, a game in which Oregon needed to find versatility against a stifling defense.
Dante Moore Over 216.5 passing yards
While Oregon’s passing game struggled against Indiana in mid-October, that was largely due to Indiana’s pass rush. It notched six sacks for 35 yards, the biggest reason why the Ducks averaged -0.392 expected points added per dropback, their worst showing of the season and one of only three games in which the passing game was a liability.
Oregon should shore up its pass protection in this semifinal. First of all, Indiana will be without defensive end Stephen Daley. His 5.5 sacks may be only third on the team, but his 19 tackles for loss lead the Indiana Hoosiers by five. He's their most dynamic defender.
Secondly, the Ducks now know just how much to fear Indiana’s pass rush. Perhaps that should have been apparent all along, but the Hoosiers had managed just one sack two weeks earlier at Iowa. Oregon may have overlooked that worry.
It will not this time, and if the Ducks keep quarterback Dante Moore upright, he should find his chances downfield. Even when he was running for his life in the first matchup, Moore threw for 186 yards.
Fernando Mendoza Over 208.5 passing yards
The Heisman winner has fallen short of this prop twice in his last three games and six times in 14 games this season. Then again, those two times in the last three games were both laughable routs, and the closest game in which Mendoza fell short of this prop was the 27-14 season opener against Old Dominion.
Mendoza topped this prop against Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State, averaging 222 passing yards in those four games against quality defenses.
If the Ducks keep Dante Moore upright, this game should be close enough to allow Mendoza to flex his muscles a bit.
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