Pittsburgh vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Panthers' Running Back Keeps Producing

If the Pittsburgh Panthers have any hopes of defending their ACC title, they need to win on the road at the North Carolina Tar Heels this weekend.

Trailing North Carolina by two games in the conference-loss column, even a win this weekend will leave Pittsburgh needing help. But a loss this weekend would essentially end the final ACC Coastal race, sending the Tar Heels to be the presumed sacrificial lamb to Clemson’s playoff march.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Pittsburgh vs, North Carolina on October 29, with kickoff set for 8:00 ET.

Pittsburgh vs North Carolina best odds

Pittsburgh vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Imagine you follow college football for a living. It is not your hobby, it is your livelihood. Imagine you focus the bulk of your betting work to be ready for when lines open on Sunday afternoon. You are ready this week, decently rested for a change, and you know you like the idea of Pittsburgh at +4.0 or better.

At about 2:05 ET, you spot +4.5 on an app as you are firing bets on some 20 games, bouncing between three sportsbooks that have lines already posted for the vast majority of this week’s games. Then, in the time it takes your brain to tell your thumb to tap the screen and your thumb subsequently tapping the screen, that line drops to +3. Bet placed. This is not a hypothetical.

This is how yours truly ended up holding a +3 ticket for Pittsburgh, frustrated to no end, but at least validated that the initial instincts were the correct ones. Those instincts focused on North Carolina’s disastrous defense, a unit that will elevate any offense short of Virginia Tech’s.

And yet, North Carolina is in pole position to win the Coastal despite that defense because its offense is so dynamic. Assuming Pittsburgh will stay within a field goal of that offense is ambitious. Know what is not ambitious? Putting faith in Panthers' running back Israel Abanikanda.

Abanikanda already has 14 touchdowns in seven games this season. Even if you remove Abanikanda’s six TDs against Virginia Tech on October 8, he is still scoring more than a touchdown per game.

The stud RB also usually scores early in the game flow. In five of the Panthers’ last six games, Abanikanda scored the first offensive touchdown of the game.

Four of those five came in the first quarter. Yes, this is trending toward a “first touchdown scorer” prop bet, but first recognize the exact phrasing in that previous paragraph: first offensive touchdown of the game. Pittsburgh twice found the end zone via a return score before Abanikanda could reach the goal line.

There is an obvious risk to this bet. If the Heels get the ball first, Drake Maye & Co. may find paydirt quickly. However, with Abanikanda to score the first touchdown available as high as +500, there is reason to take those risks.

It is 50/50 if Pittsburgh starts the game with the ball, and even if it doesn’t, it may hold North Carolina to an opening field goal. In either of those circumstances, the Heels’ defense makes it more likely than not that the Panthers will score. This season, if Pittsburgh is scoring early, it is a near-certainty Abanikanda is carrying the ball.

In that regard, the disparity between him scoring first and him scoring anytime underscores the value of the former.

My best bet: Israel Abanikanda first touchdown scorer (+500 at FanDuel)

Pittsburgh vs North Carolina spread analysis

Pittsburgh has remained a three-point underdog since that early move, some books not reaching +3 until midweek, furthering that Sunday chagrin.

North Carolina’s last two wins have both come by exactly a field goal, an upset win at Miami that looks less and less impressive each week, and a narrow win at Duke that remains a mild surprise. One could argue the Heels are used to close games, but you could also say that Gene Chizik’s sieve of a defense readily gives up fourth-quarter touchdowns, including two to Duke in the first few minutes of that final frame and one to Miami in the closing minutes of that win.

Pittsburgh may not have a quick-moving offense as Pat Narduzzi doubles down on his worst tendencies, but Chizik will leave enough of the field open that even the Panthers could be poised for a backdoor cover.

Pittsburgh vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis

Anytime a backdoor cover feels like a certainty, the Over should be embraced. At 65.5 at most sportsbooks, the risk to that approach would be perhaps Narduzzi used some of his idle weeks to thoroughly scout Maye.

That would certainly help explain the dud of a loss at Louisville last week. While that is probably not what happened in that 24-10 defeat, the only reason to back the Under in Chapel Hill this weekend is if you're expecting the Panthers’ defense to be the best unit on the field.

Pittsburgh vs North Carolina betting trend to know

Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a straight-up loss, a stretch that includes three games this season and dates back to the final week of the 2020 season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina.

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