The world wants to focus on the quarterbacks as the Oregon Ducks head to face the Penn State Nittany Lions. But with all due respect to Dante Moore and Drew Allar, more focus should be on the backfields, one of which is far better than the other.
My Oregon vs. Penn State predictions line up behind one of the best offensive lines in the country to trust one of the two best backfields in the country at kickoff at 7:30 ET on Saturday, September 27.
Our best Oregon vs Penn State SGP for Week 5
When did bettors stop embracing excellent defenses and strong run games? When did that become so unpopular? An excellent Penn State defense should slow down Oregon’s offense, especially given how opponents have dreaded throwing the ball against the Nittany Lions.
When did Unders become boring?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 26, 2025
When did we start turning up our noses to excellent defensive lines?
When did we stop loving top-tier backfields?
Expect plenty of running in Oregon vs. Penn State.
Bet the Under.
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And then Penn State’s strong run game should take over, in some part out of deference to Oregon’s excellent pass defense. Kaytron Allen has cleared this prop in two of three games despite those being absolute blowouts. Given how much the Ducks’ defense forces opponents to run the ball — Oregon opponents have rushed 22.1% more often than expected this season, per cfb-graphs.com, the second-highest mark in the country — Allen should finally see a full workload.
Where the game matters most, though, Penn State turns to Nicholas Singleton, ripe with five touchdowns in three games.
That combination should dictate this game, as boring as that may seem.
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