While Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer is listed as probable to play against the Texas Longhorns in the rivalry that kicked off our current and constant realignment stressors, the doubt about his playing status makes handicapping this rivalry game more difficult than usual.
But focusing my Oklahoma vs. Texas props and college football picks onto both Mateer and the Sooners’ defense actually removes much of that uncertainty. Kickoff comes at 3:30 ET on Saturday, October 11.
For more on this game, don't miss Andrew Caley's Oklahoma vs. Texas predictions.
Oklahoma vs Texas props for Week 7
Mateer anytime TD (+120 at FanDuel)- Mateer 2+ TDs (+700 at FanDuel)
Manning u16.5 rush yds (-114 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #1: John Mateer anytime TD
Let’s start with the basics. John Mateer broke a bone in his throwing hand three weeks ago. He had surgery a few days later, and the Oklahoma Sooners set the timetable for his return at 3+ weeks. That always made Mateer’s return for Red River unlikely.
On Monday, Sooners head coach Brent Venables said he assumed Mateer would not play. On Wednesday, Mateer was listed as questionable. On Thursday, he was upgraded to probable.
Mateer’s uncertainty makes betting on any other Oklahoma offensive player a worry. Mateer’s availability impacts all other usages.
From a gambling perspective, note: if Mateer does not play a single snap, any bets on his props will be voided. If he plays as few as one snap, then those bets will become either winners or losers depending on his performance.
If Mateer plays, then he should score. He has carried the ball across the goal line in all four of his games this season, including against Michigan, at worst a defensive front comparable to Texas’.
Prop bet #2: John Mateer 2+ TDs
Mateer’s ability to play will be decided by his pain tolerance and his ability to grip the football. One presumably impacts the other.
Recognizing that, it would be human for Mateer to run the ball even more often. He emphasized it against Michigan, taking 19 carries for 74 yards and two touchdowns.
But the real emphasis to betting on Mateer scoring twice is that we have to wonder; who else will Oklahoma turn to if Mateer is at all reluctant to throw the ball but is still healthy enough to play?
Only Tory Blaylock has multiple rushing touchdowns among the Sooners’ running backs, and they all came in utter blowouts, as did his busiest day on the ground. Blaylock may be the real deal as a back and a significant piece of Oklahoma’s future, but he is not necessarily the bellcow yet.
Jaydn Ott is effectively out of the rotation. And Jovantae Barnes’ sole rushing touchdown was in a blowout, not to mention he has logged just six total carries in the last three games.
If Mateer plays, Oklahoma’s offense may be Mateer or bust.
Prop bet #3: Arch Manning Under 16.5 rushing yards
Have fun, Arch.
Yes, he has cleared this prop in four of five games this season. And yes, the Texas Longhorns have given up just nine sacks this season. Then again, six of those came last week at Florida, losing 37 yards.
Doubting Arch Manning to churn yards with his legs is a two-fold thought.
First of all, Oklahoma has one of the best defensive lines in the country. It ranks No. 1 in the country in expected points added by quarterback rushes against, opponents costing themselves 0.798 points per designed quarterback run.
So do not expect Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian to scheme up much from Manning outside the pocket.
Secondly, if the Sooners find a lead, let alone a double-digit lead, then Manning’s afternoon could become real long. Florida notched so many sacks in some part because Texas was desperate and trying to mount a comeback. Anytime a talented defensive knows a pass attempt is likely, it is able to pin its ears back and more aggressively pursue the quarterback.
Oklahoma having that luxury would turn this into an utter debacle for Texas.
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