Averaging double-digit regular season wins over the past eight graded seasons is an impressive feat. But Over bettors need the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to show an extra gear if they hope to see a return on their futures investment.
Notre Dame enters the 2026 collegiate football season with the highest Vegas win total in the nation. And that might be enough of an adjustment from the sportsbooks to push even the most optimistic Over fan to the other side.
Here's a look at the recent history of Notre Dame win totals, along with predictions on whether the Irish will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 11.5:
Notre Dame 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 11.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 11.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 11.5 | 🟢 |
| Tyler James | Blue and Gold Illustrated (On3) | OVER 11.5 | 🟡 |
| Tim Prister | Irish Illustrated (247Sports) | OVER 11.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Even with the loss of two first-round NFL Draft picks at running back, Notre Dame is one of the most experienced teams in the country.
They return 14 starters led by quarterback CJ Carr who is the Heisman favorite. My ratings project them to be favored in every game and 11 of them by double-digits. Still, it’s tough going unbeaten, and the Irish under Marcus Freeman have been prone to upset losses.
Rob Paul
No team has a higher win total this season than Notre Dame, and rightfully so. The Fighting Irish lead the country in returning production (72%) and have a schedule ranked No. 112 in SOS (47.7%). The only truly difficult games for Marcus Freeman’s team are BYU on the road and Miami at home.
Plus, Notre Dame’s passing attack should be more potent this year with QB CJ Carr, who was top 10 in QBR last year (83.4), back and the addition of a pair of Ohio State wide receiver transfers (Mylan Graham, Quincy Porter). And Jeremiyah Love’s replacement, Aneyas Williams, has been compared to former Notre Dame great Kyren Williams.
But it’s the defense that should really help Notre Dame push for 12-0. The Irish have the best secondary in the country, led by Leonard Moore and Tae Johnson. And they have a pair of potential top 50 picks in the front seven in Boubacar Traore and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa.
Colby Marchio
Their win total really comes down to one question: do you think they can beat BYU and Miami this season to stay perfect, or are we just waiting for the annual "Marcus Freeman's team drops a game they shouldn't" moment?
I am a big Notre Dame doubter. I think they are one of the most overrated programs in sports. Every year, they cruise through a cupcake-heavy schedule with a couple of quality matchups sprinkled in, which makes people believe they are a top-tier contender. Then, when they face legitimate competition, they fall short.
That being said, I do think Freeman has made Notre Dame more likable, but the schedule always makes me question their true level of legitimacy. I love the value on the under.
📰 Notre Dame media win total predictions
Tyler James, Blue and Gold Illustrated (On3)
Notre Dame should be able to build momentum with a hot start of the season, and its talent and depth will carry it through the tougher games in the back half of the season. With the motivation for last season, it's the perfect setup for a perfect regular season.
Tim Prister, Irish Illustrated (247Sports)
This is the deepest and most talented Notre Dame football team since 1993. The Irish should be 6-0 when they travel to BYU, where the Cougars have won 11 of their last 12. Miami comes to Notre Dame in November and SMU plays the Irish in South Bend on Nov. 21.
If Notre Dame can keep CJ Carr healthy, the Irish defense will prevent all 12 regular-season opponents from scoring more points than the Carr-led offense will generate.
Notre Dame win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Notre Dame historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.5 | +115 | -140 | 10 | Under |
| 2024 | 10.5 | +145 | -175 | 11 | Over |
| 2023 | 8.5 | -115 | -105 | 9 | Over |
| 2022 | 8.5 | -150 | +125 | 8 | Under |
| 2021 | 8.5 | -145 | +120 | 11 | Over |
| 2019 | 9 | +100 | -120 | 10 | Over |
| 2018 | 9 | -130 | +110 | 12 | Over |
| 2017 | 8 | -120 | +100 | 9 | Over |
| 2016 | 9 | -130 | +110 | 4 | Under |
| 2015 | 9 | -150 | +130 | 10 | Over |
| 2013 | 9 | +140 | -180 | 8 | Under |
| 2012 | 8 | +105 | -135 | 12 | Over |
| 2011 | 9 | +110 | -140 | 8 | Under |
| 2010 | 8 | +100 | -130 | 7 | Under |
| 2009 | 9 | +105 | -135 | 6 | Under |
| 2008 | 7 | - | - | 6 | Under |
| 2006 | 10.5 | +170 | -200 | 10 | Under |
| 2005 | 6 | +115 | -145 | 9 | Over |
Wins reflect regular season only; postseason results are excluded.
🔑 Key takeaways
- Split down the middle: For a team as nationally scrutinized as Notre Dame, an even split in the Over and Under on its win totals should come as no surprise. The Irish have nine Overs and Nine unders in 18 graded seasons since 2005, though there has been some streakiness over the years.
- Steamy since '17: The Irish have been an Over bettor's dream in recent seasons, going 6-2 to the Over on their preseason win total with their only two setbacks each coming by a half-game (including last year's U10.5 result).
- Less value in the Over: If you're looking to make a little extra money on Notre Dame Overs, you'll need to bet more. The Irish have seen the Over return plus money just three times over the past 10 years, a testament to the belief that oddsmakers still don't push the total high enough (though you can't make that claim in 2026).
How Notre Dame win totals are priced
There's no margin for error here. If Notre Dame doesn't run the regular season table, those O11.5 bets disappear as the Irish's title chances.
At +160, the temptation is certainly there for bettors to take the plunge on the Irish going undefeated in regular season play. And if you like the Irish to come away with only one loss, you'll end up in a value-void danger zone where totals are concerned, with the U11.5 trading at -190 and the O10.5 installed at -270.
What's worse, Notre Dame as an independent means you can't even shift to conference win totals.
The solution: Taking Notre Dame to win exactly 11 games, a scenario that pays around +140. Those of you in the one-loss camp might want to load up here.
The Irish are an impressive 29-14-2 ATS against ranked teams since the start of the 2017 season.
Notre Dame win total FAQs
Will Notre Dame make the CFP?
Sportsbooks have this futures play as a virtual lock, giving the Irish an NCAA-best -800 odds to reach the College Football Playoff.
What is Notre Dame's projected win total?
The Irish are slotted in at an absurd 11.5 wins at sports betting sites, with the Over at +160 and the Under at -190.
Who is Notre Dame's starting QB?
CJ Carr looks to lead the Irish to the national championship as the QB1. He racked up 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns last season.
What is the most notable Notre Dame win total trend?
After recording just three double-digit win campaigns over the previous 11 campaigns, Notre Dame has averaged exactly 10 regular season victories a year since 2017, going for 10+ wins five separate times in that span.
What's the best bet for Notre Dame this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the UNDER is the preferred play, no surprise given just how high Notre Dame's win total is.
