Week 11 of the college football season continues with Wednesday night MACtion when the Northern Illinois Huskies meet the Western Michigan Broncos.
The Huskies are hoping to shake a two-game losing streak, while the Broncos are looking to get back on track after falling last week to Bowling Green State.
Who will win this MAC battle? Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan on Wednesday, November 9.
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan best odds
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan picks and predictions
It’s mostly a pick em' game, and my best bet is for Western Michigan to win.
Western isn’t playing for anything other than pride and next season. This is a winnable game for the Broncos, and it will start with their defense. WMU allows the second-fewest points per game in conference play and has surrendered 56 points over its last three games.
Northern hasn’t named a starting QB, but Rocky Lombardi and Ethan Hampton missed last week and are questionable for Wednesday. Frosh QB Nevan Cremascoli threw a pair of TD passes but completed 39% of his passes in a home loss to Central Michigan. He also rushed for 15 yards but committed two turnovers. The Broncos are fifth in MAC play against the pass, and WMU can contain Cremascoli.
The real test for the Broncos will be shutting down sophomore running back Harrison Waylee. The RB has busted loose for 863 yards and five TDs with an additional 119 receiving yards. Waylee weigh-laid a Chippewas defense for 136 yards on 20 attempts, and containing him is the key to a WMU victory.
The Broncos' offense has scored just 62 points over their past four games. Losing Jefferson for the season hurt, but Sean Tyler has rambled for 622 yards with four TDs and 82 rushing yards or more in his previous three. The fourth-best NIU rushing defense is stout but did allow 245 yards last week to CMU.
Freshman QB Treyson Bourguet has started the last two games and has thrown for 314 yards with a TD and interception. WMU has allowed 28 sacks — two last week — and faces a Huskies defense with 21 sacks, but surrenders a ninth-worst 261 passing yards. Look for junior wideout Corey Crooms to have plenty of pass-catching opportunities Tuesday.
If the Broncos are going to outscore NIU, it will be through the air. Bourguet should feel a bit more confident making his first career home start after two decent away starts. Crooms will be difficult for NIU to stop, but the key to this will be the Broncos' offensive line and how often they keep Bourguet’s jersey clean.
Bourguet is mobile, was sacked once last week, and should have time to operate against a leaky NIU pass defense. WMU's defense is stout enough to keep the NIU points to a minimum, and Western will win the game.
My best bet: Western Michigan moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
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Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan spread analysis
A spread bet is in play. Western is a -1 point home favorite at a few shops, and WMU covering is a good bet. Neither side has consistently covered the spread. NIU is 3-6-0 this season, and WMU is 4-5-0.
Crooms has caught a TD pass in four of his last five and hauled in eight balls for 151 yards and a TD last week. NIU has a similar defense to Bowling Green, and the home cooking should benefit him.
NIU has a +0.30 turnover margin, and WMU is -0.60 this season.
WMU senior wideout Jehlani Galloway could make an impact Wednesday. The senior speedster has 28 catches for 344 yards and could score his first TD against a Huskies secondary — allowing a league-worst 27 TD receptions.
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan Over/Under analysis
The total is 52 points, and I'm lean toward the Under for Wednesday.
These offenses have struggled, and with both sides missing or likely missing their starting QBs, the defenses have the edge.
The Huskies' offense averages 19 first downs, and the Broncos record 17. That's well below the 21 FDs MAC offenses average per game. Offensive third down conversion rates are favorable. NIU converts 44%, while WMU converts 36%.
Northern Illinois has scored 78 points over its past three and Western Michigan has added 39 points to the scoreboard over its past three matchups.
The Over is 7-2 over the Huskies' nine games, and the Over is 3-6 over the Broncos' nine contests.
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan betting trend to know
The Broncos are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan.
Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan game info
| Location: | Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 9, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
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