North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Picks and Predictions: Fun Belt Thursdays

The years of jokes about “Coastal Chaos” have always been based on truths. The ACC’s lesser division seemingly churns through champions in an unexpected manner every year. To carry that to its greatest reaches, North Carolina upsetting Pittsburgh this weekend would throw the Coastal into true chaos this year.

The Tar Heels can still win the ACC, something written off since the Friday of Week 1, when Virginia Tech shut down Sam Howell and the North Carolina offense in front of a national audience. Somehow, Howell & Co. have hung around, now with a chance to restore normalcy to the ACC, and by normalcy, of course, we mean the unpredictable and unlikely.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for North Carolina at Pittsburgh on November 11, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Pittsburgh opened as a 5-point favorite on Sunday, but by mid-day Monday that had climbed all the way up to -6.5, notably inverted from a summer in which North Carolina was favored by 6.5 points in lookahead lines.

The total opened at 74.5 this week, even at 75 at some books, before falling to 73.5 early in the week. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

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North Carolina vs Pittsburgh picks

• Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110)
• North Carolina Team Total Under 32.5 (-110)

Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh game info

• Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Thursday, November 11, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

North Carolina: Caleb Hood RB (Out), Beau Corrales WR (Out), Tyrone Hopper LB (Out), Ladaeson DeAndre Hollins DB (Out).
Pittsburgh: Keyshon Camp DL (Questionable), A.J. Davis RB (Questionable), Jaylon Barden WR (Questionable), Taysir Mack WR (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Pittsburgh has faced four opponents with winning records at the time of the meeting this year, and the Panthers are 4-0 ATS in those games.

The Over has gone 4-0 in the last four games between these two annual foes, pandemic season aside. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh.

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh predictions

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110)

Leaning into the Coastal Chaos would be more fun. The more enjoyable football game would include Howell tearing up another defense with his gunslinger style that increasingly includes his work as a runner. The idea of the Tar Heels rebounding from that opening week loss on a national stage to eventually reach a New Year’s Six bowl is one that encapsulates so much of the zaniness that makes us love this sport.

But these predictions are not meant to be fun. They are meant to be right.

Pittsburgh’s defense is just too good for Howell to gain that kind of traction against it. The oddity of the North Carolina offense is how much it depends on the rush, despite having a likely first-round draft pick at quarterback. The Tar Heels run the ball 40.6 times per game, compared to only 30.3 pass attempts per game.

Given the up-and-down nature of North Carolina’s 5-4 season, that ratio cannot be explained away by running out the clock on large leads — especially since the two most recent of those wins came by three points apiece — and Howell’s scrambling away from, and sometimes into, sacks has diminished of late, becoming more a designed aspect than early in the season.

The Panthers, meanwhile, give up only 3.16 yards per rush, No. 12 in the country. No matter the advanced stat, Pittsburgh’s rush defense holds up well in it.

That will force Howell to work through the air, and that simply has not been North Carolina’s strength this year, no matter how much hype Howell may receive.

North Carolina Team Total Under 32.5 (-110)

Again, the alternative would be more fun. Howell squaring up with another ACC star quarterback for a high-scoring affair for the second week in a row would make for an entertaining Thursday night, just five days after he outdueled Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman in a 58-55 win.

But again, the idea is to be correct, not to wish-cast.

Pittsburgh has had two poor defensive performances in a row, giving up 29 points to woeful Duke last week and 38 to Miami in a loss that dashed any pipedreams of a Playoff berth and endangered the Panthers’ ACC title chase. Pittsburgh can no longer afford a conference misstep. It needs to return to the form that allowed 45 total points in an October stretch featuring Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi has assuredly made that clear this week, and a defensive line that averages nearly 3.5 sacks per game should be able to dial up the pressure on Howell to make that return to form easier to achieve.

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