The Notre Dame Fighting Irish know that running the table is their only path to keeping playoff hopes alive, and Saturday’s matchup with the NC State Wolfpack marks the first step in that must-win journey.
While the Irish hold the best statistical odds of finishing the season unbeaten, they’ll need to get past a scrappy Wolfpack squad boasting one of the nation’s most efficient passing offenses.
It’s that offense that my NC State vs. Notre Dame predictions and free college football picks for October 11 are keying on.
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NC State vs Notre Dame prediction
NC State vs Notre Dame best bet: NC State team total Over 17.5 (-104)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have held their last two opponents to a combined 20 points, in large part due to their red zone defense. But that doesn’t mean we should expect that success to continue against the NC State Wolfpack.
After all, the Fighting Irish limited Boise State to just a touchdown, but that’s the same offense that managed only seven points in its opener against USF. Boise State also is just 63rd in EPA/pass and ranks 67th in passing success rate.
The Wolfpack will be a much tougher challenge, ranking 13th in EPA/pass and posting a Top 20 success rate. They’re also ranked 17th in points per quality drive, and are facing a Notre Dame defense ranked 94th in quality drive rate allowed.
NC State averages 4.7 points per quality drive, despite not having a lot of success on the ground. The Wolfpack have already hit 34 plays of 20+ yards this season, and only four teams have more plays of 40+ yards than the 11 they’ve already notched.
The Irish have conceded 20 completions of 20+ yards this season, and 52 completions of at least 10 yards—with both numbers ranking them in the 100s nationally. They rank 95th in success rate against the pass, and are generating little to no pass rush or havoc.
CJ Bailey is completing nearly 75% of his throws this season, has taken just nine sacks, and is averaging nine yards a pass. And Notre Dame won’t be able to key on just one target—seven different NC State players have caught between 11 and 28 passes this season.
Nobody’s held the Wolfpack below 21 points this season. Notre Dame won’t be the first to do so.
NC State vs Notre Dame same-game parlay
Those few teams that have given up more big pass plays than Notre Dame? Well, one of them is NC State. The Wolfpack have surrendered 54 pass plays of double-digit yardage, and I expect multiple Irish receivers to put up big plays against this defense.
Eli Raridon had just eight yards on two catches last week, and yet he’s still averaging a team-high 14.6 yards per play for the Irish. He’s caught multiple passes in four of his five games this season, and should do well against an NC State defense that has given up 40+ yard games to tight ends for both Duke and Wake Forest.
The other receiver I love in this contest is Malachi Fields. He’s caught 17 of his 27 targets for nearly 12 yards a reception, and he’s had at least 44 yards in all five games. With Jordan Faison getting plenty of attention, he should benefit nicely.
NC State vs Notre Dame SGP
- NC State team total Over 17.5
- Eli Raridon Over 28.5 receiving yards
- Malachi Fields Over 48.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Bailey leads the way
Bailey has already thrown 13 touchdown passes this season, and has multiple touchdowns in each of his last four games. The two best offenses Notre Dame has faced this season saw both quarterbacks throw a pair of touchdowns, and he will do so for the seventh time in his last eight starts.
The Irish team total sits north of 40 points, meaning there will be plenty of touchdowns to go around. Jadarian Price might be the backup running back, but he’s scored eight touchdowns over the last four games, and has hit paydirt in each one.
NC State vs Notre Dame SGP
- NC State team total Over 17.5
- Eli Raridon Over 28.5 receiving yards
- Malachi Fields Over 48.5 receiving yards
- CJ Bailey Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Jadarian Price anytime touchdown
NC State vs Notre Dame game predictions
NC State vs Notre Dame moneyline prediction
Notre Dame’s going to have home field advantage, and the Irish know that this is likely the toughest game left on their schedule. A loss would end their College Football Playoff hopes, and they won’t let that chance slip away in front of Touchdown Jesus.
NC State vs Notre Dame spread prediction
I like the Wolfpack in this spot, getting better than three touchdowns. This offense finishes drives with points, and the passing game can hit big plays. Even if the Irish pull ahead by multiple scores—which I expect—the visitors are good enough offensively to at the very least notch a backdoor cover.
NC State vs Notre Dame Over/Under prediction
The total has come down to 58.5 after opening at 62.5, which I think offers value on the Over. Both of these defenses are allowing big plays, which could lead to points. That said, each of these offenses operates at a below-average pace. I lean Over, but not enough to play it.
NC State vs Notre Dame odds
- Spread: NC State +22.5 | Notre Dame -22.5
- Moneyline: NC State +1200 | Notre Dame -2500
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 | Under 58.5
NC State vs Notre Dame trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in Notre Dame's last seven games, and 4-1 in NC State's last five games. Find more college football betting trends for NC State vs Notre Dame.
How to watch NC State vs Notre Dame
| Location | Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
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