The Missouri Tigers have been on a gradual decline since their triumphant 10-win season in 2023, and oddsmakers see that trend continuing this season.
The Tigers have dropped by one regular-season win each of the previous two seasons; they're coming off an 8-5 performance in 2025 in which they stumbled following a 5-0 start and dropped all five of their meetings with ranked teams. If they want to reverse their wins trend, they'll need to figure out how to topple the teams they're not supposed to beat.
Here's a look at the recent history of Missouri win totals, along with predictions on whether the Tigers will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 6.5:
Missouri 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 6.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Cody Goodwin | PowerMizzou (247Sports) | OVER 6.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
The Tigers lost a school-record six players to the NFL Draft. They still return the best running back duo in the country in Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. My ratings are near the posted win total.
Rob Paul
Missouri has gone 29-10 under Eli Drinkwitz over the last three years. While this year will be dependent on the health of All-American running back Ahmad Hardy, who was shot in the offseason, the Tigers bring in a top 20 transfer portal class and have a schedule that’s outside the top 30 in SOS (.571).
Hardy is the star after leading the Power 4 in forced missed tackles last year (97), but backup Jamal Roberts gives the Tigers a top running back tandem. Plus, transfer Austin Simmons (Ole Miss) is the most talented QB Drinkwitz has had in Columbia, and Missouri returns All-SEC left tackle Cayden Green to protect him.
The Tigers’ defense is a bigger question; however, it added a few major players in the portal, including Robert Woodyard Jr. (Auburn). The biggest factor to Missouri winning 7+ could be pass rusher Darris Smith, who’s poised for a breakout.
Colby Marchio
With the university dishing out $10 million per year to head coach Eli Drinkwitz, there is a lot of belief that he can turn this program all the way around. After going 8-5 last season, expectations are higher than ever in Columbia, and the Tigers are looking to take the next step under Drinkwitz.
I think adding former Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons is a massive move. He was solid before Trinidad Chambliss eventually took over the job, and he gave Missouri a talented option under center. Most importantly, if star running back Ahmad Hardy is 100% healthy, this offense should be one of the more complete units in the conference.
The defense should remain elite after what they did a year ago. The schedule has gotten a bit tougher, but I think the Tigers got a lot tougher this offseason.
📰 Missouri media win total predictions
Cody Goodwin, PowerMizzou (247Sports)
Under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri has become the kind of program that beats teams they're better than and loses to teams that are better than them.
While there's a lot to like about the new-look offense, with new quarterback Austin Simmons and new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, and the defense has built a strong reputation under third-year DC Corey Batoon, the schedule is the equalizer here, as the Tigers must play five preseason Top-10 teams this season.
That's a tough ask. I'll take the Over on 6.5, but only barely.
Missouri win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(Missouri historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.5 | +115 | -140 | 8 | Over |
| 2024 | 9.5 | +115 | -140 | 9 | Under |
| 2023 | 6 | -125 | +105 | 10 | Over |
| 2022 | 5.5 | +115 | -135 | 6 | Over |
| 2021 | 7 | -110 | -110 | 6 | Under |
| 2019 | 8.5 | +110 | -130 | 6 | Under |
| 2018 | 7 | -120 | +100 | 8 | Over |
| 2015 | 7.5 | -150 | +130 | 5 | Under |
| 2014 | 7.5 | -125 | +105 | 10 | Over |
| 2012 | 7 | -115 | -115 | 5 | Under |
| 2011 | 7.5 | -150 | +120 | 7 | Under |
| 2010 | 7.5 | -250 | +195 | 10 | Over |
| 2009 | 7 | -110 | -120 | 8 | Over |
| 2008 | 9 | NA | NA | 9 | Push |
| 2005 | 7.5 | -115 | -115 | 7 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- It's not so bad: Okay, so they've seen their record worsen two straight years. But they're still 3-1 to the Over on their last four win totals and came within one victory in 2024 of making it four consecutive Over conversions. What's more, the Over has been plus money in three of the past four years, so Missouri has certainly exceeded expectations.
- It was once much worse: Prior to their recent hot streak, the Tigers had cashed the Under on their win total in five of seven seasons – and didn't come particularly close most of the time. Missouri missed its win target by two or more victories three times over that span, cementing itself as one of the biggest disappointments in the SEC.
- Surprise!: Missouri has reached double-digit victories three times since Sports Odds History began tracking win totals in 2005. In each case, the Tigers blew past their Vegas win thresholds: They reached 10 wins at a Vegas total of 7.5 in 2010 and 2014, and beat their projection by four wins in their 10-2 showing in 2023.
How Missouri win totals are priced
The bloom is off the Tigers' rose in 2026, with oddsmakers convinced that another step back is in the cards.
Missouri's 6.5 win threshold does carry -115 odds on the Over, but even a repeat of last season's eight-win performance comes with +180 odds that translate to an implied probability of just 35.7%. If you're keen on the conference win total, the O4.5 is +120 with the Under at -140; the Tigers went 4-4 in SEC play last season.
The logic behind the perceived dip in victories is simple: The defense has been completely overhauled, returning only one player who started more than six games in 2025, and the Tigers' schedule is as unforgiving as it gets without an Alabama date on it.
The Tigers are just 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS vs. ranked opponents over the previous two seasons; they're likely looking at five games vs. ranked opponents in 2026.
Missouri win total FAQs
Will Missouri make the CFP?
Not likely, at least based on the current odds. The Tigers are listed at +700 to reach the College Football Playoff, equal to an implied probability of 12.5%.
What is Missouri's projected win total?
The Tigers' 2026 win total is set at 6.5, with the Over at -115 and the Under at -105.
Who is Missouri's starting QB?
Mississippi transfer Austin Simmons was named Missouri's QB1 following the conclusion of spring camp. He had 744 passing yards and four TDs last season.
What is the most notable Missouri win total trend?
The Tigers have cashed the Over both previous times they've carried a win total of less than seven into the regular season.
What’s the best bet for Missouri this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER on the Tigers' 2026 win total is the superior play, though Brad Powers leans in the opposite direction.
