From an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinal to ... a projected eight-win season?
Such is the lot of the Mississippi Rebels, who have plenty of work to do to repeat a sensational 2025 campaign in which they came within a late Miami touchdown of reaching the national championship game. And oddsmakers aren't sold at all, dropping the Rebels' 2026 win total to its lowest mark in three years despite plenty of recent success cashing the Over.
Here's a look at the recent history of Mississippi win totals, along with predictions on whether the Rebels will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5*:
Mississippi 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 8.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 7.5** | 🟢 |
*Win total opened at 7.5.
**Pick made at original win total.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
The return of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy should ease the transition to new head coach Pete Golding. My power ratings project Ole Miss to be favored in nine games (exceptions: at Texas, Georgia, at Oklahoma). However, this win total has been bet up from 7.5. I would lean Under 8.5 wins at current.
Rob Paul
Can Pete Golding ride the momentum of his run to the College Football Playoff semifinal into his first season as full-time head coach? It looks like he’ll be able to, thanks to star QB Trinidad Chambliss’ injunction, which earned him another season.
Chambliss, who was fifth nationally in QBR last season (86.5), has an argument to be the best quarterback in college football. And with All-American running back Kewan Lacy behind Chambliss, it’s going to be hard for new offensive coordinator John David Baker not to put together a top offense, especially with the portal additions at receiver.
However, the defense is the reason Ole Miss can win 9+ games. Golding brings in the No. 2 portal class led by defensive additions like Edwin Joseph (Florida State) and Keaton Thomas (Baylor). And the Rebels also return a trio of All-SEC talents in Will Echoles, Suntarine Perkins, and Kam Franklin.
Colby Marchio
My biggest concern with the Rebels in 2026 is that their Cinderella-esque run after Lane Kiffin left was fueled by the power of friendship and revenge. Other than that, Ole Miss is one of my favorite dark horse teams this season.
Getting one of the most electrifying players in the country back in Trinidad Chambliss is a massive win. On top of that, the defense is loaded with veterans, so I think this team is going to look a lot like last year's version. Pete Golding also gets a full offseason to prepare his guys for his system, which should only make this defense even better. They should also be a much easier team to root for now that Kiffin is gone.
Mississippi win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(Mississippi historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | -115 | -105 | 11 | Over |
| 2024 | 9.5 | -125 | +105 | 9 | Under |
| 2023 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 | 10 | Over |
| 2022 | 7.5 | -150 | +125 | 8 | Over |
| 2021 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 | 10 | Over |
| 2019 | 4.5 | +110 | -130 | 4 | Under |
| 2018 | 5.5 | -140 | +120 | 5 | Under |
| 2016 | 8 | -140 | +120 | 5 | Under |
| 2015 | 8.5 | -120 | +100 | 9 | Over |
| 2014 | 8 | -150 | +130 | 10 | Over |
| 2013 | 8 | +140 | -180 | 7 | Under |
| 2009 | 9 | -135 | +105 | 8 | Under |
| 2008 | 5.5 | NA | NA | 8 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- No respect: The Rebels aren't getting much credit for averaging 9.6 regular-season victories over their previous five campaigns while going 4-1 to the Over on their regular-season win total over that span. Only Georgia and Alabama have more victories than Mississippi among SEC teams since 2021.
- Make it six: Bettors and oddsmakers have really liked the Over on the Rebels' win totals, with 2026 marking the sixth consecutive year of -115 or worse odds. That trend has punctuated Mississippi's win total history, with just two instances of plus odds on the Over since 2009.
- Hot starts: Give the Rebels credit for providing plenty of early-season optimism to the Over crowd. Mississippi is a sizzling 20-2 SU and 16-5-1 ATS in August and September over its previous five seasons.
How Mississippi win totals are priced
Lane Kiffin's abrupt departure prior to last season's CFP created plenty of uncertainty for the Mississippi football program. But does that alone warrant a win total drop?
The Rebels have one of the more favorable schedules of any elite SEC team (if you can call any SEC sked "favorable"), avoiding Alabama while hosting LSU (welcome back, Mr. Kiffin) and Georgia and finishing the year with an Egg Bowl home date with Mississippi State. Road games vs. Oklahoma and Texas will be a challenge, but two of their three non-conference games are against Charlotte and Wofford, which should pad the W total nicely.
Finishing with five home games over their final seven dates should also give the Rebels a boost.
Did You Know?The only time Mississippi failed to convert its win total Over in the past five seasons (2024), the Rebels' three regular-season losses came by a combined total of 13 points.
Mississippi win total FAQs
Will Mississippi make the CFP?
A return to the playoff isn't out of the question according to oddsmakers, who have tagged the Rebels with the 13th-best odds of reaching the CFP (+220).
What is Mississippi's projected win total?
The Rebels entered the 2026 season with a win total of 7.5, but it has been bet up to 8.5; the Over is priced at +144, with the Under installed at -175.
Who is Mississippi's starting QB?
Trinidad Chambliss is entrenched as the Rebels' QB1. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards with 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions last season.
What is the most notable Mississippi win total trend?
Mississippi and Georgia are the only SEC teams with double-digit wins (regular season + playoffs) in each of the past three seasons.
What’s the best bet for Mississippi this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER is the superior play (though it'll be a stronger one if you find the original 7.5, with the Over priced in the -165 range at the moment.)
